Array( [0] => Array ( [0] => 20771 [id] => 20771 [1] => [domain] => [2] => de [lang] => de [3] => upload_67addf7894209 [upload] => upload_67addf7894209 [4] => sp-2025-023a.pdf [original] => sp-2025-023a.pdf [5] => [name] => [6] => sp-2025-023a.pdf [title] => sp-2025-023a.pdf [7] => [keywords] => [8] => 2025-02-13 12:03:04 [date] => 2025-02-13 12:03:04 [9] => 0 [intranet] => 0 [10] => ja [individuell1] => ja [11] => SP [individuell2] => SP [12] => upply-iru-ti-q4-2024-european-road-freight-rates-benchmark [individuell3] => upply-iru-ti-q4-2024-european-road-freight-rates-benchmark [13] => SP 23A/2025 [individuell4] => SP 23A/2025 [14] => TH E E U RO PEA NR O AD F R EIG H T R A TED EV ELO PM EN TBEN CH M ARKQ4 2 024Eu ro p ean R oad F re ig h t R ate B en ch m arkE u ro p ean R oad F re ig h t R ate B en ch m ark M ap sO pera to r c o sts F ra n ce – S p ain G erm an y – P ola n d Fra n ce – G erm an y A ustr ia – G erm an yFra n ce - U KIt a ly D om estic R ate sM eth od olo gy 367 2 3263033363942C on te n ts2 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Rate d eve lo p m en tTh e E u ro p ean B en ch m ark tr e n d h as re ve rs e d s in ce la st q u arte r, w hen b othc o n tr a ct a n d s p ot r a te s fe ll. In Q 4 2 024, b oth in dic e s in cre ase d , a lt h ou gh t h eris e in s p ot r a te s w as m ore m arg in al t h an t h at o f t h e c o n tr a ct m ark e t.T h e c o n tr a ct r a te s in dex r e m ain ed a b ove s p ot r a te s, in cre asin g b y 2 .8 p oin tsq u arte r o n q u arte r (q -o -q ) in th e la st q u arte r o f 2 024 to 1 28.9 in dex p oin ts .C on tr a ct r a te s a re n ow d ow n 1 .4 in dex p oin ts y e ar o n y e ar ( y -o -y ). S p ot r a te s h ave r e m ain ed r e la tiv e ly s ta b le , in cre asin g o n ly m arg in ally b y 0 .5p oin ts q -o -q t o 1 23.9 . S p ot r a te s a re n ow d ow n 1 .0 p oin t y -o -y .T h e g a p b etw een sp ot a n d co n tr a ct ra te s is d iv e rg in g, w it h co n tr a ct ra te sris in g f a ste r t h an s p ot r a te s. T h e s p ot in dex f ir s t f e ll b elo w c o n tr a ct r a te s in Q 22023 an d has re m ain ed belo w th e co n tr a ct in dex fo r se ve n co n se cu tiv eq u arte rs . C urre n tly , t h e g a p s ta n ds a t 5 .0 in dex p oin ts , s lig h tly s m alle r t h an ay e ar a go w hen t h e g a p w as 5 .4 in dex p oin ts . T i x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n r o ad f r e ig h t b en ch m ark E u ro p ea n r o ad f r e ig h t r a te s i n dex, Q 4-2 024 3Source: UpplyE u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t M ark et B en ch m ark © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 20244Mark et S to ry D em an d-s id e i n flu en ce s o n r a te s A s c o n tr a cts r is e a n d s p ot r a te s m arg in ally in cre ase , E u ro p ean r o ad fr e ig h t isg ra d u ally r e co ve rin g a ft e r a s ig n if ic a n t d eclin e. T h e E U r e m ain s in a s ta te o fsta gn atio n : in Q 3 2 024, s e aso n ally a d ju ste d G DP in cre ase d b y 0 .3 % in t h e E U ,co m pare d w it h t h e p re vio u s q u arte r, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t.In te re st ra te s h ave e ase d , w it h th e E u ro p ean C en tr a l B an k lo w erin g th emth re e t im es s in ce M ay 2 024. F u rth er c u ts o f 1 25 b asis p oin ts a re e xp ecte d b yth e e n d o f 2 025, a cco rd in g to th e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n A utu m n F o re ca st.D esp it e th ese im pro ve m en ts , h ig h in te re st ra te s a n d lin ge rin g in fla tio n le dh ou se h old s to s a ve m ore a n d s p en d le ss. T h e s a vin gs r a te r o se to 1 4.8 % b ym id -2 024, th re e perc e n ta ge poin ts ab ove th e pre -p an dem ic ave ra ge .C on su m ptio n re m ain s re str a in ed b u t is s e t to g ra d u ally re co ve r a s in fla tio nslo w s a n d r e al in co m es im pro ve . C on su m er d em an d fo r g o od s w as s u bdu edin 2 023 a s s p en din g s h if t e d to w ard s s e rv ic e s in c o n tr a st to p re vio u s y e ars ,a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t, a s t h e t o p e xp en dit u re in cre ase f o r h ou se h old s w as t h ere sta u ra n ts a n d a cco m mod atio n s e rv ic e s c a te go ry , in cre asin g 4 .6 % in 2 023ve rs u s 2 022.A s d em an d s h if t e d fr o m g o od s t o s e rv ic e s, d ecre ase d d em an d fo r g o od s h asle d t o t r a n sp ort v o lu m es f a llin g y -o -y , a s r e ta il t r a d e, e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le s,fe ll 0 .8 % . Q uarte r-o n -q u arte r d em an d r e co ve re d fr o m a s lu ggis h Q 3 2 024, a su nad ju ste d r e ta il tr a d e v o lu m es in cre ase d 3 .8 % in th e b u ild u p to th e h olid ayse aso n . E u ro p ean p ort th ro u gh pu t re fle cte d so m e re co ve ry , w it h A ntw erps e ein g a 9 % y -o -y in cre ase in Q 3 2 024 a n d R otte rd am g ro w in g b y 3 % . M ostb u sin esse s r e p ort in ve n to ry le ve ls a s lo w o r a s d esir e d . R esto ck in g e ffo rts inc o m bin atio n w it h h ig h er p ort vo lu m es h ave h ad a n u pw ard s p re ssu re o nra te s. D esp it e im pro vin g co n su m er dem an d, Eu ro p e’s man ufa ctu rin g se cto rco n tin ues to str u ggle wit h hig h en erg y pric e s an d weak in te rn atio n alco m petit iv e n ess. P ro d u ctio n v o lu m es f e ll 0 .3 % q -o -q a n d 0 .8 % y -o -y . E le ctr ic it ya n d f o ssil f u els a cco u nt f o r 7 % t o 9 % o f t h e in du str y p ro d u ctio n c o sts d ir e ctly ,a cco rd in g t o t h e E u ro p ean c o m m is sio n . T h e d if fic u lt ie s in p ro d u ctio n a re lik e lyt o lo w er c o n tr a ct d em an d fo r r o ad fr e ig h t a s E u ro p ean in du str ie s s tr u ggle t ok e ep u p t h eir lo n g-t e rm p ro d u ctio n le ve ls . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 20245 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Su pply -s id e i n flu en ce s o n r a te s I n Q 4 2 024, co sts ro se a cro ss a ll co m pon en ts e xce p t d ie se l, w hic h fe ll b y11.7 % . L a b ou r c o sts in th e E U 27 in cre ase d b y 5 % y -o -y , w it h d riv e r w age s b ein g th e fa ste st-g ro w in g co st co m pon en t. Pers is te n t driv e r sh orta ge s,5 00,0 00 v a ca n cie s (1 2% o f a ll p osit io n s), c o n tin ue to c h alle n ge th e in du str ya n d a re lik e ly to p u sh b oth c o n tr a ct a n d s p ot ra te s h ig h er, d u e to a va ila b lec a p acit y c o n str a in ts c o u ple d w it h t h e r is in g c o sts o f d riv e rs a s t h ey a re in s h orts u pply . A s a r e su lt , w hils t d ie se l e ase d s u pply p re ssu re o n r a te s, t h e c o st b ase is n owextr e m ely h ig h , a n d la b ou r c o sts c o n tin ue t o p u sh it f u rth er. T h is h as c re ate dan e n vir o n m en t o f lo w p ro fit m arg in w hic h c a n f a cilit a te a f e w m ore c o st f a lls ,a n d sm all co st in cre ase s o r su pply d is ru ptio n s a re in cre asin g p ric e s e ve nw hils t d em an d r e m ain s w eak . N ew ca p acit y e n te rin g th e m ark e t h as b een co n str a in ed , a s h ig h lig h te d b yA CEA ’s Q 3 2 024 d ata o n h eavy -g o od s v e h ic le (H GV) re gis tr a tio n s. N ew H GVre gis tr a tio n s d ro p ped b y 2 9% in t h e E U . D ie se l t r u ck s a cco u nte d fo r 9 5.3 % o fre gis tr a tio n s in th e fir s t n in e m on th s o f 2 024, d esp it e a 7 .3 % y -o -y d eclin e.Ele ctr ic a lly ch arg e ab le tr u ck re gis tr a tio n s fe ll b y 6 .6 % , m ain ta in in g a 2 .2 %m ark e t s h are6 Ti x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t B en ch m ark M ap – Q 4 2 024 C on tr a ct R ate s Ti x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t B en ch m ark M ap – Q 4 2 024 Sp ot R ate s Source: UpplySource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024In dex o f d ie se l p ric e s a t p u m p [ 1 ] EU w eig h te d a ve ra ge d ie se l p ric e : € 1 .5 7/L ( 3 0 /1 2/2 024) A ft e r fa ll in g to it s lo w est v a lu e s in ce Ja n uary 2 023 a t th e e n d o f S e p te m ber(r e ach in g € 1.5 0/L ), t h e E U w eig h te d a ve ra ge d ie se l p ric e r e ach ed € 1.5 7/L o n 3 0D ece m ber (+ 4.6 % v e rs u s S e p te m ber). H ow eve r, it w as s till w ell b elo w p eaksse en in 2 023 ( 1 .7 9/L a t t h e e n d o f S e p te m ber 2 023). 7O pera to r c o stsFu el p ric e sSource: xavvy, index of average weekly [1] diesel price at the pump (including taxes) by country (in local currency)Index, 2021 = 100D ie se l © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [1] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service.8Die se l p ric e s in cre ase d e arly O cto b er p u sh ed u p b y c ru de o il p ric e s, a s th eesc a la tio n o f t h e c o n flic t in t h e M id dle E ast r a is e d t h e p ossib ilit y o f o il s u pplyd is ru ptio n s. T h e B re n t cru de o il sp ot m on th ly a ve ra ge p ric e in cre ase d b y$2/b arre l ( b ) in O cto b er v e rs u s t h e p re vio u s m on th , a n d t h e E U a ve ra ge d ie se lp ric e re ach ed € 1.5 3/L . B oth c ru de o il a n d E U d ie se l p ric e s lig h tly fe ll in th ese co n d h alf o f O cto b er, a ft e r th e m ilit a ry re sp on se to m is sile a tta ck s o f 1O cto b er d id n ot ta rg e t o il in fr a str u ctu re . A ddit io n ally , s ig n s o f w eake n in g o ild em an d g ro w th ( e sp ecia lly in C hin a) a ls o w eig h ed o n p ric e s. F ro m N ove m ber a n d u ntil th e e n d o f th e y e ar, c ru de o il p ric e s h ave s lig h tlyd ecre ase d , w it h t h e B re n t c ru de o il s p ot p ric e a ve ra gin g $ 74 p er b arre l (b ) inD ece m ber, u nch an ge d fr o m N ove m ber a n d $ 1 le ss t h an it s O cto b er a ve ra ge .Th is h as b een d esp it e t h e a n nou nce m en t o f O PEC + m em bers o n 5 D ece m bero n th eir agre em en t to exte n d vo lu nta ry cu ts [2 ] (w hic h w ere se t to begra d u ally p h ase d o u t fr o m Ja n uary 2 025 o n a m on th ly b asis ) u ntil A pril 2 025.H ow eve r, t h e E U d ie se l p ric e h as f o llo w ed a r e ve rs e d t r e n d, s lig h tly in cre asin gove r t h e s a m e p erio d , d u e t o a s tr o n ge r U S d olla r (+ 7.2 % U SD -E U R e xch an gera te b etw een e n d o f S e p te m ber a n d e n d o f D ece m ber, re ach in g le ve ls n otse en sin ce en d 2022) m akin g oil pric e s fo r non -d olla r co u ntr ie s m oree xp en siv e . In early Ja n uary , cru de o il p ric e s an d EU d ie se l p ric e s in cre ase d sh arp ly ,re ach in g a w eekly a ve ra ge o f $ 7 8/b a n d 1 .6 0/L , re sp ectiv e ly , b y th e s e co n dw eek of Ja n uary . H ow eve r, th ey sta rte d to d eclin e m id -Ja n uary aft e r th ean nou nce m en t o f a 4 2-d ay c e ase -f ir e a gre em en t b etw een Is ra e l a n d H am as,e asin g s u pply c o n ce rn s in t h e M id dle E ast. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [2] 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts (announced in November 2023 by 8 members of OPEC+), that were set to expireat the end of June 2024 but have been continuously delayed. Initially, the group planned to gradually phase themout from on a monthly basis from October 2024 until the end of September 2025 (even if the phase out remainedsubject to market conditions), but the beginning of the phase out was postponed to January and has beenpostponed again to April 2025.9Die se l p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 C N G a n d L N G p ric e s [ 3 ]D ie se l p ow ertr a in s c u rre n tly a cco u nt f o r 9 9% o f t r u ck s in t h e E U . H ow eve r, t h etr a n sit io n to net-z e ro em is sio n s has sp ark e d in te re st in alt e rn ativ ep ow ertr a in s su ch as co m pre sse d n atu ra l ga s (C N G), liq u efie d n atu ra l ga s(L N G), an d b atte ry - e le ctr ic ve h ic le s (B EV ). W it h ou t fo rg e ttin g th at cu rre n tdie se l p ow ertr a in s c a n le ve ra ge H VO t o r e d u ce t h eir e m is sio n s b y o ve r 8 0+% .In Q 3 2 024, 6 3,0 00 t r u ck s u sin g a lt e rn ativ e p ow ertr a in s w ere r e gis te re d in t h e EU , w it h C N G t r u ck s b ein g t h e la rg e st in n um ber (5 6% ), f o llo w ed b y B EV (2 5% )an d LN G (1 8% ). Fo r th e fir s t tim e, B EV s beca m e th e le ad in g alt e rn ativ ep ow ertr a in s o ld a t tr u ck d eale rs h ip s, s u rp assin g C N G w it h n ew re gis tr a tio nsh are s o f 2 .1 % a n d 1 .9 % , r e sp ectiv e ly [ 4 ].[3] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service. [4] https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/transport-mode/road/european-union-eu27/vehicles-and- fleetLo ca l n atu ra l g a s p ro d u ctio n in t h e E U h as b een d eclin in g o ve r t h e la st d eca d e,h ig h lig h tin g th e blo c’s re lia n ce on im ports . Th e ge o p olit ic a l la n dsc a p e,p artic u la rly t h e w ar in U kra in e, h as im pacte d n atu ra l g a s im ports a n d a ffe cte dC N G a n d L N G p ric in g, w hic h s o are d in 2 022. L N G e xp erie n ce d s h arp er s p ik e s,e sp ecia lly in G erm an y a n d It a ly . A lt h ou gh p ric e s fo r b oth fu els h ave sin ced ecre ase d , th ey re m ain h ig h er th an p re -2 022 le ve ls . L N G h as sh ow n m ores ta b ilit y in r e ce n t y e ars . B ut it s till c o sts m ore t h an C N G in m ost m ark e ts . C N Gan d LN G p ric e s are cu rre n tly fa cin g an u pw ard tr e n d, w hic h w ill als o b ein flu en ce d b y f u tu re t a xa tio n lin ke d t o t h e E U e m is sio n s t r a d in g s y ste m ( E TS2 ). O ve r t h e p ast m on th s, n atu ra l g a s p ric e s h ave in cre ase d d u e t o a c o n flu en ceo f f a cto rs : P artic u la rly c o ld w eath er h as c a u se d a s h arp in cre ase in h eatin g d em an d,ca u sin g E U g a s in ve n to rie s t o b e d ep le te d a t t h e f a ste st p ace s in ce 2 021. A tth e sa m e tim e, d eclin in g w in d e n erg y g e n era tio n h as fo rc e d u tilit ie s tor e p la ce re d u ce d re n ew ab le e n erg y w it h g a s-f ir e d p la n ts . T h is h as d riv e nth e E U ’s g a s s to ra ge le ve ls b elo w t h e 9 0% t a rg e t c a p acit y . G azp ro m u nexp ecte d ly s to p ped s u pplie s t o A ustr ia in N ove m ber, s p ark in gco n ce rn s ab ou t bro ad er dis ru ptio n s. In ad dit io n , th e pip elin e tr a n sita gre em en t b etw een R ussia a n d U kra in e, w hic h su pplie s 5 % o f E U g a sim ports e xp ir e d a t t h e e n d o f 2 024. T h is w ill e sp ecia lly im pact c o u ntr ie s inE aste rn an d Cen tr a l Eu ro p e (e sp ecia lly Hunga ry an d Slo va kia ). Th eEu ro p ean C om mis sio n h as la id ou t se ve ra l so lu tio n s to h elp affe cte dco u ntr ie s, in clu din g fillin g n eed s th ro u gh s u pplie s o f G re ek, T u rk is h a n dR om an ia n g a s v ia t h e T ra n s-B alk a n r o u te . A cco rd in g t o t h e in du str y o rg a n is a tio n G as In fr a str u ctu re E u ro p e, t h e v o lu m eof g a s in th e E U 's s to ra ge fa cili t ie s d ecre ase d b y a b ou t 2 4% fr o m th e e n d o fSe p te m ber t o t h e e n d o f D ece m ber. A t t h e e n d o f D ece m ber, g a s s to ra ge w asa t 7 2% o f t o ta l c a p acit y , v e rs u s 8 6 % in D ece m ber 2 023. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 1011 CN G p ric e s a t p u m p Source: xavvy, average weekly CNG price at pump (including taxes) LN G p ric e s a t p u m p Source: Xavvy, average weekly LNG price at pump (including taxes) © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 CN G a n d L N G p ric e s, in flu en ce d b y r a w m ate ria l c o sts , d is tr ib u tio n a n d t a xe s,sh ow s ig n if ic a n t n atio n al d is p arit ie s. In 2 023, S p ain h ad t h e lo w est C N G p ric e ,fo llo w ed c lo se ly b y It a ly (w hic h e xp la in s th e p op u la rit y o f C N G tr u ck s in b othc o u ntr ie s), w hile S w ed en h ad t h e h ig h est d u e t o h ig h er t a xe s.12 CN G p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: Xavvy, including taxes. Please note that for Finland, prices are for November 2024 LN G p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: Xavvy, including taxes. For Netherlands, showing monthly average November 2024 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024HVO p ric e s [ 5 ]H VO , a ls o re fe rre d to a s re n ew ab le d ie se l, is a b io fu el m ad e fr o m w astep ro d u cts s u ch a s c o okin g o il, a n im al f a t, t a llo w , f is h o ils a n d t e ch nic a l c o rn o il.I t is co n sid ere d a n a lt e rn ativ e fu el b eca u se , o n a w ell- t o -w heel a cco u ntin gbasis , it e m it s a b ou t 0 .5 2 k g o f C O 2 p er lit r e , o n a ve ra ge , in th e E U , w hic h is8 5% le ss t h an d ie se l. T h e a d va n ta ge s o f H VO , c o m pare d w it h d ie se l, in clu de le ss t a ilp ip e p ollu ta n ts(b ette r tr a d e-o ff betw een partic u la te m atte rs an d nit r o ge n oxid es) an dco m patib ilit y w it h a m od ern d ie se l e n gin e. H ow eve r, it s d is a d va n ta ge s in clu dea h ig h er p ric e a n d m ore lim it e d a va ila b ilit y . N ot a ll E U c o u ntr ie s a llo w th edis tr ib u tio n o f H VO a t p u blic re fu ellin g sta tio n s (C yp ru s, G re ece , H unga ry ,L a tv ia , Lit h uan ia , Lu xe m bou rg , M alt a , P ortu ga l an d Slo ve n ia d o n ot h avep u blic H VO r e fu ellin g s ta tio n s.) T h ere a re a ls o d is p arit ie s in t h e d en sit y o f H VOre fu ellin g s ta tio n s w it h in th e E U . T h e N eth erla n ds h as th e g re ate st d en sit y ,w hile F ra n ce a n d R om an ia h ave t h e lo w est d en sit y o f H VO r e fu ellin g s ta tio n s,w it h fiv e a n d t w o p u blic s ta tio n s d is tr ib u tin g H VO , r e sp ectiv e ly . H ow eve r, t h esit u atio n is evo lv in g ra p id ly , as th e n um ber o f sta tio n s in Eu ro p e tr ip le db etw een M arc h a n d J u ly 2 024. Th e n ext m ap s h ow s th e m on th ly p ric e fo r H VO a t th e p u m p in D ece m ber2 024. In g e n era l, H VO is b etw een € 0.1 0/L to € 0.6 0/L m ore e xp en siv e th and ie se l, e xce p t in I t a ly w here H VO a n d d ie se l h ad t h e s a m e p ric e p er lit r e d u e t og o ve rn m en t s u bsid ie s. 13 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [5] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service.14 HVO p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: xavvy, including taxes and subsidies © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202415Oth er d eve lo p m en ts i m pactin g c o sts[6] Meeting minutes are available on the European Commission’s website [7] Updates on national implementation plans and methods are periodically updated in IRU’s Flash Info Service. Itis an online service providing selected relevant real-time country information notably on road traffic, strikes,blockades and roadworks affecting commercial road transport.A s p art o f M ob ilit y P ack a ge 1 , tr a n sp ort o p era to rs h ave th e o b lig a tio n tor e tr o fit all ve h ic le s re gis te re d in th e EU an d in te n ded fo r cro ss-b ord ero p era tio n s w it h th e S m art T a ch ogra p h V ers io n 2 (G 2V 2). D ep en din g o n th ecu rre n t ty p e o f ta ch ogra p h in sta lle d in th e v e h ic le , th ere a re tw o a p plic a b led ead lin es: D ead lin e 1 – re p la ce th e an alo gu e an d d ig it a l ta ch ogra p h (G 1) b y 31D ece m ber 2 024 D ead lin e 2 – r e p la ce t h e f ir s t g e n era tio n o f t h e s m ar t t a ch ogra p h ( G 2V 1) b y 19 A ugu st 2 025 Fo llo w in g IR U ’s ca ll, b ase d o n cle ar e vid en ce th at a sig n if ic a n t n um ber o ftr a n sp ort op era to rs wou ld not be pre p are d to co n tin ue cro ss-b ord ero p era tio n s a s o f 1 Ja n uary d u e to d ela ys in th e re tr o fit w it h th e G 2V 2, th een fo rc e m en t of th e dead lin e fo r re tr o fit tin g cro ss-b ord er ve h ic le s w it ha n alo gu e o r fir s t-g e n era tio n d ig it a l ta ch ogra p h s (G 1) h as b een p ostp on edfr o m 1 J a n uary t o 2 8 F e b ru ary 2 025. T h is d ecis io n f o llo w s a c o n se n su s r e ach edb y M em ber S ta te s in E U th e R oad T ra n sp ort C om mit te e, p ro vid in g o p era to rse xtr a t im e t o m eet t h e G 2V 2 r e q u ir e m en ts [ 6 ]. D urin g t h is g ra ce p erio d , t r a n sp ort o p era to rs w ho t h at h ave n ot y e t r e tr o fit te dth eir v e h ic le s w ill n ot fa ce s a n ctio n s. In ste ad , e ffo rts w ill b e m ad e to fu rth erra is e th eir a w are n ess o f th e re tr o fit tin g re q u ir e m en t. T h is m easu re a im s toh elp o p era to rs a n d m an ufa ctu re rs a d dre ss th e r e tr o fit b ack lo g a n d m in im is ed is ru ptio n t o c ro ss-b ord er t r a n sp ort a n d E U s u pply c h ain s. T h e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n h as in vit e d M em ber S ta te s t o s h are t h eir n atio n alim ple m en ta tio n p la n s a n d m eth od s f o r in fo rm in g o p era to rs [ 7 ]. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202416O utlo okDem an d s id e a n d r a te sEu ro p e is in cre asin gly a d op tin g n ears h orin g s tr a te gie s to m in im is e r is k s a n dre d u ce c o sts , w hic h is s h if t in g m an ufa ctu rin g a n d s h ip pin g d em an d g ra d u allyt o P o la n d, R om an ia , a n d T ü rk iy e , t h is t r e n d is lik e ly t o c o n tin ue in t h e m ed iu m to lo n g te rm . In te rm s o f c o n su m er d em an d, In fla tio n re m ain s a fa cto r b u tris in g w age s a n d im pro vin g p u rc h asin g p ow er a re h elp in g to s lo w ly r e vit a lis ed em an d.EU r e gu la tio n s a im in g a t g u id in g th e in du str y to w ard s r e ach in g s u sta in ab ilit yt a rg e ts , su ch a s th e o n go in g im ple m en ta tio n o f th e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e(w it h D en m ark b ein g th e la te st co u ntr y to in tr o d u ce m ile age ch arg in g inJ a n uary 2 025), a s w ell a s t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f E TS II f o r r o ad t r a n sp ort f r o mJa n uary 2 027, w ill in cre ase c o sts a n d e xe rt u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s. I n co n clu sio n , it is exp ecte d th at th e d em an d la n dsc a p e th ro u gh ou t th eco n tin en t is s h if t in g in lin e w it h n ears h orin g r e q u ir e m en ts , w hic h c a n h ave a nu pw ard s p re ssu re o n ra te s. D em an d fo r n ew ca p acit y h as co ole d a ft e r ap erio d o f d is ru ptio n s o it is n ot e xp ecte d t o p u t p re ssu re o n r a te s in t h e s h ortto m ed iu m te rm . H ow eve r, C O 2 re gu la tio n s w ill d riv e a fu rth er in cre ase inz e ro -e m is sio n v e h ic le s in t h e lo n g t e rm . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202417A cco rd in g to th e U nit e d S ta te s E n erg y In fo rm atio n A ge n cy (E IA ) fo re ca sts ,c ru de o il p ric e s w ill r is e m od estly in t h e c o m in g m on th s d u e t o t h e e xte n sio n of O PEC + p ro d u ctio n c u ts , le ad in g to g lo b al o il in ve n to ry w it h dra w als o f 0 .5m illio n b /d o n a ve ra ge in Q 1 2 025. A s a re su lt , th ey e xp ect B re n t c ru de o ilp ric e s to in cre ase to a n a ve ra ge o f $ 76/b in Q 1 2 025, u p fr o m th eir $ 74/bD ece m ber a ve ra ge . H ow eve r, fo llo w in g th is in it ia l u pw ard p re ssu re in e arly 2 025, m ark e ts a ree xp ecte d to re tu rn to in ve n to ry b u ild s a n d th us d ecre asin g o il p ric e s fr o mm id -2 025, a s g ro w th in g lo b al o il p ro d u ctio n o u tp ace s g ro w th in o il d em an d.O PEC + co u ntr ie s are exp ecte d to in cre ase pro d u ctio n by Q 2 2025, an dpro d u ctio n g ro w th fr o m n on -O PEC + w ill a ls o c o n tin ue (e ve n if a t a s lo w erp ace th an in p re vio u s y e ars ), o ffs e tt in g a w eak g ro w th in g lo b al o il d em an d. EIA e xp ects B re n t c ru de o il p ric e s to a ve ra ge $ 72/b in D ece m ber 2 025 a n d$74/b in 2 025. Sig n if ic a n t u nce rta in tie s r e m ain w it h in t h is f o re ca st: O PEC + m em bers c o u ld c o n tin ue t o d ela y t h e p h asin g o u t o f v o lu nta ry c u ts(n ow s e t t o s ta rt in A pril 2 025). C han ge s in e co n om ic g ro w th a n d o th er fa cto rs c o u ld s ig n if ic a n tly c h an geth e g lo b al o il c o n su m ptio n f o re ca st ( w hic h n ow s h ow s g ro w th t h at r e m ain sbelo w it s p re -p an dem ic a ve ra ge ) Th e M id dle -E ast c o n flic t h as in je cte d s ig n if ic a n t u nce rta in ty a n d v o la tilit yin to o il m ark e ts a n d fu tu re d eve lo p m en ts h ave th e p ote n tia l to in flu en ceo il p ric e s. T h e c u rre n t 4 2-d ay c e ase - f ir e is t h e s e co n d s in ce t h e b egin nin gof t h e w ar, lo n ge r a n d m ore c o n se q u en tia l t h an t h e f ir s t (w ee klo n g p au seo n e a y e ar a go ) h as th e p ote n tia l to e n d th e fig h tin g, b u t te n sio n s c o u lde sc a la te a ga in . N eve rth ele ss, s h ou ld t h is h ap pen , t h ere h ave n ot b een a n yoil s u pply d is ru ptio n s s o fa r, a n d e ve n if th ere w ere , th ere is a s ig n if ic a n tsu rp lu s o f c ru de o il p ro d u ctio n c a p acit y a va ila b le w hic h c o u ld c o ve r a n ypote n tia l. F u el c o sts S u pply s id e © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Th is fo re ca st w as c o m ple te d b efo re th e U nit e d S ta te s is su ed a d dit io n alsa n ctio n s ta rg e tin g R ussia ’s oil se cto r on 10 Ja n uary , w hic h h ave th epote n tia l t o r e d u ce R ussia ’s o il e xp orts t o t h e g lo b al m ark e t. T h e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n h as r e ce n tly im ple m en te d s e ve ra l r e gu la tio n s a n ddir e ctiv e s to g u id e in du str ie s to w ard s a ch ie vin g ca rb on n eu tr a lit y b y 2 050:C O 2 s ta n dard s fo r n ew v e h ic le s, th e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e fo r to ll ta xe s (s e ese ctio n o n t o llin g c o sts f o r m ore d eta ils ), C ou ntE m is sio n sE U f o r C O 2 r e p ortin g,a n d E u ro 7 fo r p ollu ta n t e m is sio n s. M ost o f th ese re gu la tio n s w ill im pactv e h ic le s’ t o ta l c o st o f o w ners h ip , b u t t h ey w ill n ot d ir e ctly a ffe ct fu el p ric e s a tth e p u m p. H ow eve r, w it h th e in te gra tio n o f r o ad tr a n sp ort (p riv a te c a rs a n dco m merc ia l v e h ic le s) in to E TS2 b y 2 027, a n in cre ase in f o ssil f u el p ric e s b ase do n th eir c a rb on c o n te n t is a n tic ip ate d . In th e lo n g ru n, th is a ls o m ean s le ssd em an d f o r d ie se l p ow ertr a in s. B ase d o n t h e t a n k-t o -w heel a p pro ach , b u rn in g 1 lit r e o f d ie se l e m it s 2 .6 2kg o fC O 2, w hile 1 kg o f n atu ra l ga s, e it h er LN G o r C N G, e m it s 2 .3 1kg o f C O 2.In te gra tin g r o ad tr a n sp ort in to E TS2 m ean s th at th e c a rb on c o n te n t o f fo ssilf u els u se d b y tr u ck s w ill h ave a p ric e se t b y a ca rb on e xch an ge m ark e t,s ta rtin g a t a m in im um o f € 45 p er t o n ne o f C O 2, w it h n o m axim um v a lu e. H VOis n ot e xp ecte d to b e affe cte d b y su ch ta xa tio n an d is th us e xp ecte d tob eco m e m ore c o m petit iv e p ric e w is e . T h e g ra p h b elo w s h ow s t h e lin k b etw eenca rb on p ric in g a n d fo ssil fu el ta xa tio n fo r d ie se l a n d n atu ra l g a s, e xclu din gad dit io n al v a lu e-a d ded t a xe s t h at E U c o u ntr ie s m ig h t a p ply . 18Source: IRU © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Im pact o f E T S2 p ric in g o n f o ssil f u el p ric e s19T o llin g c o sts a re e xp ecte d t o c o n tin ue in cre asin g in 2 025.O n o n e h an d, t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f D ir e ctiv e (E U ) 2 022/3 62 a m en din g th e Eu ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e is s till u nderw ay. D en m ark is t h e la te st c o u ntr y t o im ple m en t it , p assin g fr o m a t im e-b ase dfe e t o d is ta n ce -b ase d o n e, w it h C O 2 c la ss d if fe re n tia tio n , jo in in g G erm an y,A ustr ia , C ze ch ia a n d H unga ry . In D en m ark , tr u ck s w it h a g ro ss c o m bin edw eig h t (G CW ) gre ate r th an 12 to n nes are su bje ct to th e new CO 2co m pon en t f ir s t, w hile t r u ck s o f 3 .5 t o n nes a n d a b ove a s o f 1 J a n uary 2 027.A s o f 1 Ja n uary 2 025, th e to ll a p plie s to th e m ain p art o f th e s ta te ro adn etw ork , a n d p arts o f th e m unic ip al r o ad n etw ork (in to ta l a p pro xim ate ly1 0,9 00km ). It is t h e in te n tio n o f t h e D an is h g o ve rn m en t t h at t h e r o ad t o llw ill a p p ly to th e e n tir e D an is h p u blic r o ad n etw ork a s o f 1 Ja n uary 2 028(a p pro xim ate ly 7 5,0 00km ). L o w -e m is sio n zo n es w here tr u ck s w ill p ay ag re ate r C O 2 co m pon en t are bein g se t in C op en hage n , Fre d erik sb erg ,O den se , Aarh us an d Aalb org . Th is new to ll will be re d u ce d byap pro xim ate ly 1 9% in 2 025–-2 027, a n d b y a p pro xim ate ly 1 2% in 2 028 d u eto a r e ce n t p olit ic a l a gre em en t. Th e N eth erla n ds, S w ed en a n d L u xe m bou rg a re e xp ecte d t o c o m munic a tet h e n ew C O 2-b ase d p ric e s d if fe re n tia tio n in M arc h t h is y e ar. P ola n d, B ulg a ria , R om an ia , a n d B elg iu m a re a ctiv e ly d is c u ssin g p la n s fo rim ple m en ta tio n in th e n ear fu tu re . M ean w hile , o th er c o u ntr ie s a re e it h eraw ait in g th e exp ir a tio n of th eir cu rre n t co n ce ssio n co n tr a cts or h avere ce iv e d r e m in ders fr o m th e C om mis sio n to ta ke a ctio n a n d a d va n ce th epro ce ss [ 8 ]. T o llin g c o sts © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [8] In May 2024, 16 Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain) received a formal notice from the EUCommission to move on the implementation of the Eurovignette Directive in their countries. Changes might thencome soon for these countries.20W hat i s t h e u pdate d o f C O 2 t o ll i m ple m en ta tio n a cro ss E u ro p e? Tolling increases by country for a Euro VI Class 1 truck Source: IRUA ddit io n ally , s e ve ra l m em bers h ave in cre ase d th eir to lls a t th e s ta rt o f 2 025,w hile o th er in cre ase s a re e xp ecte d t h is y e ar. T o d ate , t h e c h an ge s c o m pare dto 3 1/1 2/2 024 a re s h ow n b elo w : © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202421T h e p erc e n ta ge s s h ow n a re fo r a c la ss 1 E u ro V I a rtic u la te d v e h ic le , m ad e o ftw o axle s ro ad tr a cto r an d th re e axle s se m i- t r a ile r. A ustr ia h as se en th esta rk e st in cre ase (+ 12% ). A m on g th e o th er c h an ge s, B elg iu m ’s 3 % is fo r th eW allo n ia re gio n , w it h p ric e s n ow in dexe d to in fla tio n ra te . L a tv ia is s e ein g ap ric e d ecre ase fo r th is sp ecif ic ve h ic le , w hic h is n ot tr u e fo r o ld er tr u ck s.P ortu ga l p artly r e m ove d to lls o n it s h ig h w ays w hile it in cre ase d th e p ric e o noth ers . T h e in cre ase s h ow n fo r D en m ark c o rre sp on ds t o t h e im ple m en ta tio nof t h e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e . A p ric e h ik e in t o lls is e xp ecte d la te r in 2 025 f o r Fra n ce , a s w ell a s t h e N eth erla n ds, S w ed en , a n d L u xe m bou rg . T h ese c o u ntr ie sw ill a n nou nce t h e n ew C O 2-b ase d p ric e d if fe re n tia tio n in M arc h . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 To llin g s c h em es u pdate 2 025 Tolling increases 2025 versus 31/12/2024 for a Euro VI Class 1 truck in 2025 Source: IRU22 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O th er d eve lo p m en ts i m pactin g c o stsT h e E U r e gu la tio n o n C O 2 s ta n dard s fo r n ew v e h ic le s s e ts it s fir s t t a rg e ts fo rJu ly 2 025 , fo cu sin g o n ro ad tr a cto rs a n d h eavy lo rrie s. T ru ck m an ufa ctu re rsh ave t o lo w er t h eir s a le s-b ase d e m is sio n s b y 1 5% c o m pare d t o t h e 2 019–2 020b ase lin e. T o d ate , o n ly o n e m an ufa ctu re r is o n tr a ck to m eet it s E U ta rg e ts .T h is w ill p ote n tia lly le ad t o a p ric e in cre ase f o r n ew t r u ck s d u e t o t h e p ote n tia lfin es m an ufa ctu re rs w ill h ave to fa ce [9 ]. A noth er p ossib le im plic a tio n is th elo w erin g of ze ro -e m is sio n ve h ic le s’ re ta il pric e , bu t it still need s to beob se rv e d .[9] https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-emissions-trucks-manufacturers-2021-reporting-dec24/Paris - M ad rid R oad F re ig h t R ate sR ate s O n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m M ad rid t o P aris , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 3 .5 % q -o -q to € 1,4 58 (€ 1.1 5/k m ), w hile sp ot ra te s in cre ase d b y 4 .5 % q -o -q , re ach in g€1,4 84 (€ 1.1 7/k m ). Y e ar o n y e ar, c o n tr a ct ra te s d eclin ed b y 5 .0 % , a n d s p otra te s f e ll b y 2 .1 % .On t h e b ack h au l r o u te f r o m P aris t o M ad rid , c o n tr a ct r a te s in cre ase d b y 3 .1 %fr o m th e p re vio u s q u arte r to € 1,8 03 (€ 1.4 2/k m ), w hile s p ot r a te s d ro p ped b y5.1 % , s e ttlin g a t € 1,7 59 (€ 1.3 8/k m ). C om pare d to th e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar,c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 6 .0 % , w hile s p ot r a te s d ecre ase d b y 2 .3 % . Sp ot r a te s w ere 1 .8 % h ig h er th an c o n tr a ct r a te s o n th e h ead h au l, a n d 2 .5 %lo w er th an co n tr a ct ra te s o n th e b ack h au l. Th e ga p n arro w ed fr o m la stq u arte rs , w hen t h e s p ot r a te w as 6 .0 % a b ove t h e c o n tr a ct r a te .23S p ain - F ra n ceSource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202424M ark et s to ryIn Q 3 2024, Eu ro p ean co n su m ers re p orte d ca u tio u s o p tim is m . Sta b ilis in ghou se h old fin an ce s a n d re d u ce d in fla tio n co n ce rn s d ro ve th is in cre ase ino p tim is m . T h is is r e fle cte d in t h e F re n ch d em an d e n vir o n m en t, a s IN SE E d atas h ow ed th at h ou se h old co n su m ptio n in F ra n ce slig h tly in cre ase d sp en din gacro ss ca te go rie s q-o -q . Fo od co n su m ptio n in cre ase d by 0.8 % q-o -q bu tre m ain ed d ow n 0 .1 % y -o -y . C on su m ptio n o f e n gin eere d p ro d u cts r o se b y 0 .9 %q -o -q bu t re m ain ed 0.6 % belo w Q 3 2024 le ve ls . In co n tr a st, hou se h oldd u ra b le s d eclin ed 0 .8 % q -o -q b u t r e m ain ed u p 1 .3 % y -o -y . S p ain 's m an ufa ctu rin g la n dsc a p e o u tp erfo rm ed th e E u ro a re a c o n sis te n tly inH 2 2 0 24, a s S p ain 's m an ufa ctu rin g P M I r o se t o 5 3.3 in D ece m ber, m ark in g 1 1co n se cu tiv e m on th s a b ove t h e 5 0.0 g ro w th t h re sh old . S tr o n g e xp ort d em an dfr o m E u ro p e a n d N orth A fr ic a b ooste d p ro d u ctio n a n d n ew o rd ers . T h e B an kof S p ain r a is e d it s 2 024 g ro w th f o re ca st t o 3 .1 % , in dic a tin g a p osit iv e d em an den vir o n m en t. Th is h as in cre ase d th e vo lu m e e xp ecta tio n s fo r lo n ge r-t e rmc o n tr a cts a n d p ro vid ed s ig n if ic a n t u pw ard s p re ssu re o n t h e c o n tr a ct m ark e t inb oth dir e ctio n s. Th e ra te of gro w th of Sp an is h dem an d has slo w edco n sid era b ly , r e ta il v o lu m e g ro w th b etw een J u ly a n d N ove m ber 2 024 a ve ra ge d-1 .4 % y -o -y , t h is is in c o n tr a st t o + 4.3 % in t h e p re ce d in g f iv e m on th s. W it h t h ead dit io n al effe ct of re d u ce d eco n om ic activ it y du e to flo od in g th is hassig n if ic a n tly r e d u ce t h e d em an d s id e p re ssu re o n r a te s a n d f a cilit a te d a la rg e5 .1 % d ro p in b ack h au l s p ot r a te s p u sh in g th em b elo w c o n tr a ct r a te s fo r th efir s t t im e o n t h is r o u te . O n th e o th er h an d, S p an is h v e h ic le p ro d u ctio n a n d e xp orts s a w s ig n if ic a n tdeclin es, im pactin g r o ad f r e ig h t d em an d. A cco rd in g t o t h e S p an is h A sso cia tio nof A uto m ob ile an d Tru ck M an ufa ctu re rs , ve h ic le p ro d u ctio n in N ove m berd ro p ped b y 18.1 % y-o -y , an d exp orts fe ll b y 4.4 % in 2024 d u e to w eakE u ro p ean m ark e t d em an d. D esp it e t h e c a u tio u sly p osit iv e in dic a to rs fo r m ark e t c o n dit io n s o n t h is r o u te ,so m e ch alle n ge s re m ain as it is a dif fic u lt dem an d an d m an ufa ctu rin gen vir o n m en t a cro ss t h e c o n tin en t. T h e r ip ple e ffe ct c a n b e fe lt a cro ss r o u te s,th is is e vid en t in t h e y -o -y d eclin es o f s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct o n t h e h ead h au l, a n dth e y -o -y s p ot d eclin e o n t h e b ack h au l. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202425O utlo okA cco rd in g to th e Caix a B an k, th e bro ad er eco n om ic ou tlo ok fo r Sp ain isr e la tiv e ly op tim is tic . H ou se h old pu rc h asin g pow er is re co ve rin g ste ad ily ,th ere fo re d em an d is u nlik e ly to la g o n th is r o u te , b u oyin g r a te s u p. L o okin gah ead , s p ot r a te r is e s a re lik e ly t o r e m ain m arg in al, d esp it e t h e r is e in c o sts , a sd em an d r e m ain s m ute d a n d c a n n ot f a cilit a te a s ig n if ic a n t s p ot r a te r is e in t h esh ort t e rm . In t h e m ed iu m t o lo n g t e rm , c o n tr a ct r a te s w ill c o n tin ue t o r is e a sm an ufa ctu rin g re co ve rs in th e h ead h au l, an d th e exte n t o f th e ris e w illd ep en d o n a va rie ty o f fa cto rs th at w ill lik e ly d ep en d o n m an ufa ctu rin gdem an d r a th er t h an c o sts g o in g f o rw ard . M ean w hile , F re n ch E co n om ic a ctiv it yr e m ain s s u bdu ed a n d is u nlik e ly t o a d d o r r e d u ce a n y s ig n if ic a n t p re ssu re o nra te s. H ow eve r, a h ig h c o sts b ase a n d e ro d ed p ro fit m arg in s a re in cre asin g t h elik e lih ood o f s o m e p ric e r is e s. O n t h e b ack h au l, t h e s ig n if ic a n t y -o -y r is e in c o n tr a ct r a te s c a n b e a ttr ib u te d t ot h e ele va te d co st b ase ve rs u s th e la st ye ar o f o p era tin g a Fre n ch tr u ck .O pera tin g c o sts f o r F re n ch t r u ck s h ave r is e n a cro ss a ll c o m pon en ts , e xce p t f o rd ie se l c o sts , w hic h f e ll b y 1 .0 % q -o -q a n d 1 1.2 % y -o -y . D riv e r c o sts r e m ain t h ela rg e st c o st in cre ase , w hile m ain te n an ce , t o lls , a n d in su ra n ce c o sts h ave a ls ose en m od era te q u arte rly g ro w th . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202426D uis b u rg – W ars a w R oad F re ig h t R ate sR ateO n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m W ars a w t o D uis b u rg , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 2 .3 %to € 1,6 46 ( € 1.5 2/k m ), q -o -q . S p ot r a te s s a w a s im ila r in cre ase o f 3 .3 % , r e ach in g€1,8 10 (€ 1.6 8/k m ). Y e ar o n y e ar, co n tr a ct ra te s in cre ase d 8 .4 % , w hile sp otra te s in cre ase d b y 9 .4 % . O n t h e b ack h au l r o u te f r o m D uis b u rg t o W ars a w , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 7 .3 %q -o -q t o € 1,2 35 (€ 1.1 4/k m ), w hile s p ot r a te s in cre ase d b y ju st 1 .0 % , r e m ain in gre la tiv e ly s ta b le a t € 1,4 47 (€ 1.3 4/k m ). C om pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar,s p ot r a te s r o se b y 1 0.1 % , a n d c o n tr a ct r a te s in cre ase d b y 7 .3 % . P ola n d - G erm an y Source: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Mark et S to ryR is in g c o sts in G erm an y a n d P ola n d, e xce p t fo r d ie se l, h ave a d ded u pw ard sp re ssu re o n ro ad fr e ig h t d em an d a n d p ric in g. G erm an y’s s te ep M AU T (t o ll)i n cre ase d th e o p era tin g co sts o f ca rrie rs in G erm an y, ca u sin g a kn ock -o nin cre ase in r a te s o r d ete rrin g s o m e c a rrie rs f o rm o p era tin g o n G erm an r o u te sall t o ge th er, in t u rn r e d u cin g t h e a va ila b le c a p acit y a n d in cre asin g s u pply s id ep re ssu re o n r a te s.A s o f D ece m ber 2 023, th e to ll in cre ase d b y a ro u nd € 0.1 58/k m , a n d a C O 2su rc h arg e o f € 200 p er to n o f C O 2 w as a d ded fo r c o m merc ia l v e h ic le s. A s o fJu ly 2 024 , th e n ext sta ge o f th e ro ad to ll re fo rm ca m e in to fo rc e , a n d th eob lig a tio n t o p ay f o r t o ll r o ad s in G erm an y e xte n ded t o u se rs o f v e h ic le s w it h am axim um t o ta l w eig h t o f 3 .5 t o 7 .5 T o n nes.In fla tio n in P ola n d r e m ain s e le va te d , a ve ra gin g 4 .8 % in Q 4 2 024, u p f r o m 2 .8 %in Q 1 2 024, fo llo w in g in fla tio n o f 1 1.8 % in 2 023. R ece n t in cre ase s a re o n cea ga in ca u sin g p ric e p re ssu re s acro ss th e eco n om y. P olis h la b or co sts fo rtr a n sp ort e m plo ye es ro se b y 1 6.0 % y-o -y in Q 4 2 024, th e se co n d-h ig h estin cre ase in th e EU aft e r Rom an ia . A s a re su lt , th e co st base fo r polis ho p era tio n co n tin ues to gro w a n d a d d u pw ard p re ssu re to b oth sp ot a n dco n tr a ct m ark e ts .P asse n ge r c a r p ro d u ctio n in P o la n d in cre ase d 3 5.6 % , a cco rd in g to S ta tis tic sP ola n d, a ve ra gin g 1 4,0 00 u nit s p er m on th , v e rs u s la st q u arte r’s 1 0,0 00 u nit sp er m on th . H ow eve r, th is fig u re fe ll 45% y-o -y . new ord ers str u ggle d ,d ecre asin g to 9 5.1 0 p oin ts in N ove m ber 2 024, d ow n fr o m 9 7.4 0 p oin ts inO cto b er 2 024. G erm an d em an d r e m ain ed p artic u la rly w eak, d riv in g t h e f a ste std eclin e in P olis h e xp ort o rd ers in t h re e m on th s.27 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O n th e h ead h au l, th e g a p h as w id en ed b etw een sp ot a n d co n tr a ct ra te sslig h tly , w it h sp ot ra te s n ow 9 .9 % h ig h er th an co n tr a ct ra te s th is q u arte r,c o m pare d t o 8 .9 % in t h e p re vio u s q u arte r. In c o n tr a st, t h e g a p b etw een s p otan d c o n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed o n th e b ack h au l in Q 4. S p ot ra te s w ere 1 7.2 %ab ove c o n tr a ct r a te s in Q 4 2 024, d ow n f r o m 2 4.6 % in t h e p re vio u s q u arte r.28 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 D om estic d em an d re co ve re d s lig h tly . H ow eve r, th e d ow ntu rn in n ew o rd ersfa ile d t o o ffs e t f a llin g p ro d u ctio n o u tp u t, lim it in g r a te g ro w th f o r b oth t h e s p otan d c o n tr a ct r a te a n d t h e d em an d is la ggin g.O n t h e b ack h au l, t h e s tr o n ge st a re a o f g ro w th in G erm an m an ufa ctu rin g w asth e m an ufa ctu re o f tr a n sp ort e q u ip m en t, u p 7 .5 % q -o -q , u p 2 .0 % , h ow eve r,s till 3 .0 % b elo w p re -p an dem ic le ve ls . N ew o rd ers fo r m an ufa ctu rin g w ere u pqu arte r o n q u arte r, b y 3 .0 % , h ow eve r d ow n 0 .8 % y -o -y . G erm an co n su m er b eh avio r sh ow ed m ix e d tr e n ds to w ard s th e e n d o f th eye ar. A cco rd in g to d ata fr o m D esta tis , re ta il tr a d e e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le san d m oto rc y cle s g re w b y 8 .0 % q -o -q a n d 1 .6 % y -o -y . H ow eve r, t h e r e ta il s a le s o f fo od , b eve ra ge s, a n d to b acco d eclin ed b y 0 .6 % q u arte rly a n d 3 .0 % y -o -y ,w hile clo th in g sa le s ro se b y 6 .7 % q -o -q b u t fe ll b y 3 .9 % co m pare d to th epre vio u s ye ar. D esp it e th is , G fK re p orte d a slig h t re co ve ry in co n su m erse n tim en t in D ece m ber, w it h b oth in co m e e xp ecta tio n s a n d w illin gn ess t o b u yin cre asin g, w hile th e w illin gn ess to s a ve d ecre ase d . T h e c o n su m er c lim ate ise xp ecte d to im pro ve m od estly at th e sta rt of th e new ye ar, w it h th ew illin gn ess t o b u y s ta b ilis in g a t a lo w le ve l a n d g a in in g 0 .6 p oin ts t o r e ach - 5 .4 ,an im pro ve m en t o f m ore t h an t h re e p oin ts c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la sty e ar. A s a r e su lt , G erm an c o n su m er s p en din g is a d din g lit tle p re ssu re to th eupw ard s m ove m en t o f r a te s o n t h is la n e.A cco rd in g to Eu ro sta t d ata , co n su m er sp en din g in P ola n d sh ow ed m ix e dtr e n ds in t h e f o u rth q u arte r. C ar s a le s e xp erie n ce d a s tr o n g in cre ase , r is in g b y11.8 % co m pare d to th e p re vio u s q u arte r an d 1 2.7 % y-o -y . Sa le s o f fo od ,b eve ra ge s, an d to b acco gre w m od estly , up 0.9 % q-o -q an d 1.0 % y-o -y .H ou se h old g o od s s a w s ig n if ic a n t g ro w th , in cre asin g b y 7 .4 % q -o -q a n d 1 5.1 %y-o -y . H ow eve r, r e ta il tr a d e, e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le s, d eclin ed b y 1 .9 % y -o -yd esp it e a 2 .4 % q u arte rly ris e . T h ese fig u re s s u gge st a c a u tio u sly im pro vin gdem an d e n vir o n m en t.29 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O utlo okO ve ra ll, ris in g co sts on th e W ars a w -D uis b u rg ro u te are exe rtin g upw ardp re ssu re o n ra te s a s c a rrie rs p ass th ese in cre ase s o n to c u sto m ers . T h is isl ik e ly to k e ep r a te s e le va te d in 2 025 a s p ro fit m arg in s n ow p ro vid e v e ry lit tler o om f o r f u rth er f a lls . G erm an y's s h arp M AU T t o ll in cre ase s, a lo n g w it h r is in gla b or c o sts in P ola n d, a re k e y c o n tr ib u to rs t o t h is t r e n d.30L ille – D uis b u rg R oad F re ig h t R ate s R ate sO n t h e h ead h au l r o u te fr o m D uis b u rg t o L ille , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 5 .3 % inQ 4 c o m pare d to th e p re vio u s q u arte r, re ach in g € 680 (€ 2.2 5/k m ). S p ot ra te sre m ain ed r e la tiv e ly s ta b le , in cre asin g b y ju st 0 .8 % t o € 694 (€ 2.3 0/k m ). Y e ar o nye ar, c o n tr a ct r a te s f e ll b y 8 .7 % , w hile s p ot r a te s d eclin ed b y 5 .2 % . On th e b ack h au l ro u te fr o m L ille to D uis b u rg , co n tr a ct ra te s fo r Q 4 2 024in cre ase d b y 5 .0 % q -o -q t o € 507 (€ 1.6 8/k m ). S p ot r a te s r o se b y 6 .8 % o ve r t h esa m e p erio d , re ach in g € 581 (€ 1 .9 2/k m ). C om pare d to th e sa m e q u arte r in2 023, s p ot r a te s in cre ase d b y 8 .0 % , w hile c o n tr a ct r a te s s a w a s m alle r r is e o f2.1 % . Fra n ce – G erm an ySource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202431M ark et S to ryA cco rd in g to D esta tis , n ew o rd ers in G erm an y d ro p ped b y 5 .4 % b etw eenO cto b er a n d N ove m ber, d riv e n b y a s h arp d eclin e in la rg e o rd ers e xce ed in g€50 m illio n . Y e ar o n y e ar, o rd ers f e ll b y 1 .7 % . T h e d em an d f o r G erm an g o od sd eclin ed b y o ve r 8% sin ce 202 0. R eta il sa le s als o co n tr a cte d b y 0.6 % inN ove m ber, in dic a tin g w eak c o n su m er s p en din g. A s n ew o rd er n um bers a relo w , p ro d u ctio n o u tp u t n um bers a re s e t t o c o n tin ue d eclin in g. T h ere fo re , t h e in du str y w ill c o n tin ue t o d em an d s m alle r v o lu m es o f r o ad f r e ig h t in Q 1 2 025,w hic h k e ep s p re ssu re f r o m t h e m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r lo w . T h is is e vid en t in t h ey-o -y r a te d ecre ase s o b se rv e d in t h e h ead h au l.O n th e b ack h au l, th e F re n ch m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r c o n tr a cte d in D ece m ber,w it h P M I d ro p p in g to 4 1.9 . A s a r e su lt o f a w eak d em an d e n vir o n m en t, it isc le ar th at co sts a re th e m ajo r d riv in g fa cto rs fo r p ric e in cre ase s b etw eenG erm an y a n d F ra n ce .Tru ck o p era tin g c o sts in G erm an y s a w b ro ad in cre ase s. T yre e xp en se s r o se b y2.8 % q -o -q a n d 2 .4 % y -o -y . M ain te n an ce a n d re p air co sts clim bed b y 1 .1 %co m pare d to th e pre vio u s qu arte r an d 5.4 % y-o -y . In su ra n ce co stse xp erie n ce d th e ste ep est su rg e , u p 4 .0 % fr o m th e p re vio u s q u arte r a n d asig n if ic a n t 3 3.7 % y -o -y . In a d dit io n , la b ou r c o sts fo r tr a n sp ort e m plo ye es inG erm an y r o se 5 .0 % in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t. A s p re vio u sly m en tio n ed , o p era tin g c o sts f o r F re n ch t r u ck s a re u p q -o -q in a llc o st c o m pon en ts . E xce p t f o r D ie se l c o sts , w hic h d ecre ase d y -o -y b y 1 1.2 % a n dq-o -q b y 1 ,0 % . D riv e r c o sts re m ain o n a n u pw ard tr a je cto ry , th e C N R L o n gH au l d riv e r in dex ris in g b y 5 .1 % y -o -y in Q 4 2 024 (+ 0.1 % q -o -q ), d ow n fr o m+7.9 % in th e p re vio u s q u arte r. Th ey re m ain th e b ig ge st in cre ase in co stc o m pon en t. M ain te n an ce co sts in cre ase d 3.0 % y-o -y , to lls an d axe l ta xe sin cre ase d 2.8 % an d ve h ic le in su ra n ce an d fin an ce co sts in cre ase d 3.2 % ,acco rd in g t o C N R. L a b ou r c o sts fo r t r a n sp ort e m plo ye es in F ra n ce g re w 4 .0 %in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t.O n th e h ead h au l, th e g a p b etw een s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed th isq u arte r, w it h s p ot r a te s n ow ju st 2 .1 % a b ove c o n tr a ct r a te s, c o m pare d t o 6 .7 %la st q u arte r. O n th e b ack h au l, th e ga p b etw een sp ot an d co n tr a ct ra te sw id en ed , w it h s p ot r a te s n ow 1 4.6 % a b ove c o n tr a ct r a te s, c o m pare d t o 1 2.7 %la st q u arte r. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202432 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O utlo okEco n om ic a ctiv it y re m ain s ra th er s ta gn an t o n b oth s id es o f th is la n e a n d isp ro vid in g lit tle u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s. A lt h ou gh t h e c u rre n t e n vir o n m en tfo r d em an d is w eak, h ig h c o sts a re c o n tin uin g t o p u sh r a te s u pw ard s, a n d a ssu ch , th ey w ill r e m ain a t th is s u sta in ed le ve l a s h ig h c o sts a re p asse d o n toc u sto m ers . C arrie rs n ow fa ce a n e le va te d co st b ase w it h lo w p ric e le ve lsr e su lt in g in t h in m arg in s. I n 2 025, s ig n if ic a n t p ric e d ro p s a re u nlik e ly ; h ow eve r,a n y g ro w th in d em an d is e xp ecte d t o d riv e p ric e in cre ase s a s c a rrie rs s e iz e ar a re o p portu nit y t o b oost p ro fit s .S in ce 1 Ja n uary 2 025, t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f t h e F re n ch L o w E m is sio n M ob ilit yZ o n es (Z FE s), u nder t h e C lim ate a n d R esilie n ce A ct, h as e n te re d a n ew p h ase .So m e cit ie s h ave tig h te n ed tr a ffic re str ic tio n s, an d th e sc h em e h as b eenexte n ded . N ow 4 2 c o n urb atio n s a re p ote n tia lly a ffe cte d , in clu din g L ille . F o r t h em om en t, o n ly H GVs r e gis te re d b efo re 1 O cto b er 2 001 a re b an ned in t h e L illec o n urb atio n . T w o co n urb atio n s th at re gu la rly e xce ed re gu la to ry a ir q u alit yt h re sh old s a re " e ffe ctiv e Z FE t e rrit o rie s”, P aris a n d L yo n . A gglo m era tio n s t h atco m ply w it h th e re gu la to ry a ir q u alit y th re sh old s, b u t w it h a c o n ce n tr a tio nth at re gu la rly exce ed s th e va lu e re co m men ded by th e W orld Healt hO rg a n iz a tio n , a re “v ig ila n ce te rrit o rie s”. T h e p re ssu re o n h au lie rs to e q u ipt h em se lv e s w it h le ss p ollu tin g fle ets w ill t h ere fo re in cre ase , w hic h m ay w eig ho n c a p acit y a n d c o sts . H ow eve r, u rb an a re as h ave d eve lo p ed a p ra gm atic a n dca u tio u s a p pro ach . Fo r e xa m ple , th e G re n ob le A lp es m etr o p olit a n a re a isp la n nin g to re vie w it s tim eta b le fo r C rit 'A ir 2 lig h t c o m merc ia l v e h ic le s a n dheavy g o od s v e h ic le s. T h e b an o n th ese v e h ic le s s h ou ld b e p ostp on ed fr o mJu ly 2 025 t o J u ly 2 028.Th e bala n ce s of op in io n asso cia te d w it h th e le ve l of ord er books areim pro vin g, a s t h ey a re u p – 1 8.4 in D ece m ber, f r o m - 2 1.1 0 p oin ts in N ove m beran d -2 5 .1 0 p oin ts in O cto b er o f 2 024. A s o u tp u t in cre ase s in th e sh ort tom ed iu m te rm , th is w ill h ave u pw ard s p re ssu re o n ra te s as th e d em an den vir o n m en t fo r th e b ack h au l re co ve rs d u e to e xp orts a n d a n in cre ase ini n pu t o rd erin g. In a d dit io n , a lt h ou gh F ra n ce 's G DP g re w b y 0 .4 % q -o -q in Q 3, th e B an k o fFra n ce a n tic ip ate s s lig h t p osit iv e e co n om ic g ro w th in Q 4. B y t h e e n d o f 2 024,th e Ban k pro je cts ove ra ll eco n om ic gro w th of 1.1 % , wit h hou se h oldc o n su m ptio n o f e n gin eere d g o od s e xp erie n cin g a m od est 0 .9 % q -o -q in cre ase .33A ustr ia - G erm an yW ie n – D uis b u rg R oad F re ig h t R ate s O n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m D uis b u rg t o W ie n , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 8 .0 % q -o-q in Q 4 2 024, re ach in g € 1,3 86 (€ 1.4 5/k m ). M ean w hile , sp ot ra te s d ip pedslig h tly b y 1 .7 % , s e ttlin g a t € 1,5 57 (€ 1.6 3/k m ). Y e ar-o n -y e ar re ve als , c o n tr a ctra te s a re 9 .0 % lo w er th an th e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar, w hile s p ot ra te s h avefa lle n b y 4 .6 % . On th e b ack h au l ro u te fr o m W ie n to D uis b u rg , co n tr a ct ra te s in Q 4 2 024in cre ase d slig h tly by 2.8 % fr o m th e pre vio u s qu arte r, re ach in g €1,0 47(€ 1.1 0/k m ). In co n tr a st, sp ot ra te s declin ed by 2.2 % , dro p pin g to €1,2 95(€ 1.3 5/k m ). C om pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar, c o n tr a ct r a te s h ave r is e nb y 7 .8 % , w hile s p ot r a te s h ave e d ge d d ow n s lig h tly , d ecre asin g b y 1 .1 % .On th e h ead h au l, th e sig n if ic a n t ris e in co n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed th e g a pb etw een s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct r a te s t o 1 2.3 % in Q 4, d ow n f r o m 2 3.4 % in Q 3, w it hs p ot r a te s r e m ain in g h ig h er. R ate sSource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202434M ark et S to ryG erm an y's M an ufa ctu rin g P M I fo r N ew E xp ort O rd ers r o se s lig h tly to 4 3.7 inD ece m ber 2 024 b u t c o n tin ued t o in dic a te a s h arp c o n tr a ctio n , e xte n din g a 3 4-m on th d eclin e d u e to w eak d em an d, p artic u la rly fr o m E u ro p ean m ark e ts .W hile ch em ic a ls an d co n su m er n on -c y clic a ls sh ow ed so m e re silie n ce , th eau to m otiv e an d m ach in ery se cto rs re m ain ed w eak. Th is re d u ce d exp ortd em an d tr a n sla te s in to lo w er ro ad fr e ig h t vo lu m es, re d u cin g cu sto m erco m petit io n fo r ro ad fr e ig h t, fr e ein g u p m ore ca rrie r ca p acit y a n d in tu rnp u ttin g d ow nw ard p re ssu re o n f r e ig h t r a te s.In A ustr ia , m an u fa ctu rin g o u tp u t fe ll b y 3 .2 % q -o -q in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g toS ta tis tic s A ustr ia . H ow eve r, n ew o rd ers r o se b y 6 .9 % , r e co ve rin g fr o m a 0 .6 %co n tr a ctio n in th e pre vio u s qu arte r, wit h co n su m er du ra b le go od sexp erie n cin g a 1 2.5 % in cre ase . C on ve rs e ly , t h e m an ufa ctu re o f m oto r v e h ic le s,tr a ile rs , a n d s e m i- t r a ile rs fe ll s h arp ly b y 1 8.4 % . D esp it e th is im pro ve m en t inn ew o rd ers , t h e A ve ra ge P M I d eclin ed b y 0 .2 in dex p oin ts q -o -q a n d 1 .2 in dexp oin ts m on th o n m on th , s ig n alin g o n go in g c o n tr a ctio n in th e m an ufa ctu rin gse cto r. R ep orts f r o m S & P h ig h lig h te d w eake n in g d em an d, w it h f ir m s e xp ectin glo w er ou tp u t an d exp erie n cin g declin es in in pu t co sts an d fa cto ry ga tec h arg e s. H ig h co sts , partic u la rly w age s, an d co m petit iv e pre ssu re s haveco n str a in ed t h e a b ilit y t o r a is e f r e ig h t r a te s, s ig n alin g c o n tin ued c h alle n ge s f o rA ustr ia 's r o ad fr e ig h t m ark e t a m id st w eak m an ufa ctu rin g a ctiv it y a n d lim it e dp ric e g ro w th in s p ot r a te s.T ru ck o p era tin g c o sts in A ustr ia s h ow ed v a rie d in cre ase s a cro ss c o m pon en ts .T yre c o sts ro se b y 1 .6 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3 a n d 2 .5 % c o m pare d to th esa m e p erio d la st y e ar. M ain te n an ce a n d r e p air c o sts in cre ase d b y 0 .7 % q -o -qa n d 6 .3 % y -o -y . In su ra n ce c o sts s a w s m alle r c h an ge s, r is in g b y 0 .2 % q -o -q a n d4.2 % y -o -y .A s m en tio n ed p re vio u sly , G erm an tr u ck o p era tin g c o sts a re a ls o o n th e r is e ,in cre asin g a cro ss th e b oard . T yre c o sts r o se b y 2 .8 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3an d b y 2 .4 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar. M ain te n an ce a n d r e p airc o sts in cre ase d b y 1 .1 % in Q 4 v e rs u s Q 3 a n d b y 5 .4 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m eperio d la st y e ar. In su ra n ce c o sts e xp erie n ce d t h e s h arp est r is e , in cre asin g b y4.0 % in Q 4 c o m pare d t o Q 3 a n d b y 3 3.7 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la sty e ar. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202435O utlo okA n im pro ve m en t in n ew e xp ort o rd ers P M I in G erm an y, c o u ple d w it h t h e r is ein n ew o rd ers in A ustr ia , s ig n als t h at t h ere is p ote n tia l fo r a g ra d u al r e co ve ryin e xp ort d em an d th at c a n p u sh ra te s u p in th e s h ort to m ed iu m te rm a sin du str ia l o u tp u t in cre ase s to fu lf ill o rd ers . If th ese tr e n ds c o n tin ue, fu tu rer o ad fr e ig h t v o lu m es c o u ld g ra d u ally ris e , re ve rs in g s o m e o f th e d ow nw ardp re ssu re o n ra te s. A lt h ou gh o p era tin g c o sts a re n ot ris in g a s fa st a s in th epre vio u s q u arte rs , t h e e le va te d c o st b ase y -o -y c a n p u sh c o n tr a ct r a te s u p a sco n tr a cts c o m e t o r e n ew al. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202436 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 F ra n ce - U K Fra n ce - U K i m ports a n d e xp orts C on tr a ct a n d s p ot r o ad f r e ig h t r a te s b etw een F ra n ce a n d t h e U K c o n tin ued t od eclin e in Q 4 2 024. F ra n ce –U K c o n tr a ct ra te s fe ll b y 8 .2 % c o m pare d to th epre vio u s q u arte r, d ro p pin g f r o m € 1,8 21 (€ 3.0 5/k m ) t o € 1,6 71 (€ 2.8 1/k m ). Y e aro n y e ar, r a te s f e ll 7 .8 % f r o m € 1,8 12 in Q 4 2 023. M ean w hile , U K–F ra n ce c o n tr a ct ra te s sh ow ed a slig h t q u arte rly in cre ase o f0.6 % , r is in g f r o m € 1,0 85 ( € 1.6 8/k m ) t o € 1,0 91 ( € 1.6 9/k m ). H ow eve r, t h ese r a te sd eclin ed b y 3 .9 % f r o m € 1,1 35(€ 1.7 5/k m ) y -o -y . F ra n ce –U K sp ot ra te s fe ll 6.3 % q-o -q , fr o m €1,8 96 (€ 3.1 8/k m ) to €1,7 76(€ 2.9 9/k m ), a n d d ro p ped 3 .6 % y-o -y fr o m € 1,8 43(€ 3.1 /k m ). U K–F ra n ce sp otra te s s h ow ed m arg in al q u arte rly s ta gn atio n , d ecre asin g b y 0 .9 % fr o m € 1,0 80(€ 1.6 8/k m ) to € 1,0 71 (€ 1.6 5/k m ). H ow eve r, U K–F ra n ce sp ot ra te s fe ll m ores h arp ly y -o -y , d eclin in g b y 6 .9 % fr o m € 1,1 50 (€ 1.7 7/k m ). T h e la ck lu ste r b u syse aso n co n tr ib u te d to th e w eak ra te e n vir o n m en t o n b oth h ead h au l a n dback h au l r o u te s. R ate sSource: Upply37 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 M ark et S to ryA cco rd in g t o O NS's la te st U K t r a d e r e le ase , t o ta l g o od s e xp orts f e ll s lig h tly b y£0.1 b illio n (0 .4 % ), w it h a £ 0.7 b illio n (4 .6 % ) d eclin e in e xp orts to n on -E Uco u ntr ie s. H ow eve r, th is w as la rg e ly o ffs e t b y a £ 0.6 b illio n (4 .1 % ) in cre ase ine xp orts t o t h e E U .In O cto b er 2 024, im ports f r o m t h e E U e xce ed ed t h ose f r o m n on -E U c o u ntr ie sb y £ 4.4 b illio n , w hile e xp orts to th e E U w ere ju st £ 0.1 b illio n h ig h er th ane xp orts t o n on -E U c o u ntr ie s. F ra n ce r a n ke d a s t h e U K’s fo u rth -la rg e st t r a d in gpartn er in t h e fo u r q u arte rs e n din g Q 2 2 024, a cco u ntin g fo r 6 .0 % o f t o ta l U Ktr a d e.H ow eve r, U K e xp orts o f g o od s t o F ra n ce d ecre ase d b y 6 .6 % in t h e 1 2 m on th sto O cto b er 2024, w hile im ports of go od s fr o m Fra n ce declin ed by 8.8 %co m pare d to th e s a m e p erio d th e p re vio u s y e ar. F ra n ce re m ain s a k e y U Ktr a d in g p artn er, b u t tr a d e v o lu m es h ave fa lle n , a n d th at is re fle cte d in th edow nw ard s t r e n d in r a te s q -o -q .Ye ar o n y e ar, U K D ie se l c o sts h ave f a lle n b y 9 .8 % , a n d t h ere w as n o im med ia tec h an ge t o fu el d u ty a n nou nce d in t h e a u tu m n b u dge t. A cco rd in g t o t h e R oadH au la ge A sso cia tio n ’s A nnual C ost M ove m en t S u rv e y, t h ere w as a 3 .5 1% r is e ino ve ra ll o p era tin g c o sts , in clu din g fu el. In a d dit io n , F ra n ce d ie se l c o sts fe ll b y11.2 % y-o -y . Fu el re p re se n ts b etw een a q u arte r an d a th ir d o f a tr u ck 'so p era tin g c o sts , a n d f u els c o sts h ave b een o n a d ow nw ard s t r e n d in b oth t h ehead h au l a n d t h e b ack h au l o f t h is r o u te . F u el c o sts a re t y p ic a lly p asse d d ow nto c o n su m ers t h ro u gh r a te s. T h ere fo re , t h e r e d u ctio n in f u el p ric e s h elp s e asec o st p re ssu re s, e xe rtin g d ow nw ard p re ssu re o n o ve ra ll r a te s, a s o b se rv e d t h isq u arte r.A s o f A pril 2 025, U K o p era tin g c o sts a re s e t t o r is e f o llo w in g a n nou nce m en ts int h e a u tu m n b u dge t. T h e H GV L e vy w ill in cre ase t o £ 597, a n d t h e R oad F u nd t o£ 580, b rin gin g t h e t o ta l t o £ 1,1 77, a 3 .6 % in cre ase . H ow eve r, t h is r e p re se n ts as ig n if ic a n t 1 10% r is e c o m pare d to p re -A ugu st 2 023 r a te s, w hen th e le vy w asn ot a p plie d .38 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 In a d dit io n , th e U K g o ve rn m en t h as d ela ye d th e fin al p h ase o f it s B ord erTa rg e t O pera tin g M od el (B TO M ) t o 3 1 Ja n uary 2 025, c it in g r e ad in ess c o n ce rn sw it h th e re q u ir e d te ch nolo gy. O rig in ally se t fo r 3 1 O cto b er 2 024, th e n ewsa fe ty a n d s e cu rit y d ecla ra tio n s f o r E U im ports h ave b een p ostp on ed , t h ou ghb u sin esse s a lr e ad y filin g d ecla ra tio n s fo r n on -E U im ports a re e n co u ra ge d tob egin e arly . A ddit io n ally , b ord er c h eck s o n s o m e m ed iu m -r is k E U fr u it a n dve ge ta b le im ports are defe rre d to 1 Ju ly 2025, w hile ch eck s on lo w -r is kp ro d u ce h ave b een c a n ce le d e n tir e ly to a vo id p ote n tia l s h orta ge s a n d p ric ein cre ase s.T h is d ela y w ill lik e ly in cre ase t h e a d m in is tr a tiv e b u rd en o n b u sin esse s, a s t h ead ded p ap erw ork a n d lo gis tic a l d if fic u lt ie s c o u ld r e d u ce c a p acit y o n t h is r o u te ,fu rth er driv in g up ra te s. Th ese fa cto rs are exp ecte d to ra is e co sts fo rb u sin esse s re ly in g o n E U –U K tr a d e ro u te s, in te n sif y in g th e d is ru ptio n s th ath ave f o llo w ed B re xit .O utlo okA lt h ou gh c o sts , s p ecif ic a lly fu el, w ere a m it ig a tin g fa cto r p re ve n tin g r a te r is e sth is q u arte r, t h e lo n ge r-t e rm o u tlo ok f o r c o sts r e m ain s d if fic u lt f o r o p era to rs . T h e c o n su m er d em an d o u tlo ok o n t h is r o u te is m ix e d . In t h e U K, r is in g c o stsa re la rg e ly a ffe ctin g th e d em an d la n dsc a p e. A cro ss se cto rs , co m pan ie s a rep re p arin g fo r p ric e in cre ase s, w hic h co u ld d riv e d ow n co n su m er sp en din g,p artic u la rly in r e ta il a n d h osp it a lit y . T h e v o lu m e o f g o od s t r a d ed m ay d ecre ased u e to th ese fa cto rs , w hic h c o u ld r e d u ce th e p re ssu re o n b oth c o n tr a ct a n dsp ot p ric e s f o r U K im ports a s f e w er g o od s e n te r t h e c o u ntr y in t h e s h ort r u n.H ow eve r, c o n su m er d em an d in F ra n ce is o n a s lig h tly e asie r r o u te t o r e co ve ry .In 2 025, F re n ch e xp orts a re s e t t o in cre ase 2 .7 % , a n d F re n ch im ports a re s e t t oin cre ase 1.8 % th ro u gh ou t th e ye ar, acco rd in g to th e la te st IM F tr a d ep re d ic tio n s.A p ote n tia l r e co ve ry in c o n su m er d em an d in F ra n ce c o u ld n udge r a te s b ack u pfo r F re n ch im ports in 2 025. C ost fa cto rs re la tin g to o p era tio n s a n d b ord erco n tr o ls c a n d riv e r a te s u p f o r U K im ports , a n d r e vit a lis e d c o n su m er d em an din F ra n ce c a n h ave a n u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s f o r r a te s a s w ell.39I t a ly D om estic R ate sRate s D om estic co n tr a ct ra te s in It a ly ro se b y an ave ra ge o f 3.9 p oin ts in Q 4co m pare d t o Q 3.A s o f D ece m ber 2 024, d om estic c o n tr a ct r a te s r e ach ed 1 37.4 p oin ts , c lim bin g4.4 p oin ts s in ce N ove m ber. C on ve rs e ly , s p ot r a te s f e ll b y a lm ost 1 0.0 p oin ts t or e ach 1 49 .8 in D ece m ber.Y e ar o n y e ar, c o n tr a ct ra te s w ere u p b y 2 .5 p oin ts , w hile s p ot ra te s s a w am ore lim it e d r is e o f 0 .6 p oin ts .Source: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202440IIt a ly 's co n su m er sp en din g sh ow ed sig n s of ste ad y gro w th in la te 2024.A cco rd in g t o I S T A T, c o n su m ptio n in cre ase d 4 .4 % in Q 3 2 024. I n a d dit io n , in t h eth re e m on th s to N ove m ber 2 02 4, th e v a lu e o f r e ta il s a le s in cre ase d b y 0 .6 % ,while s a le s v o lu m e w as u p 0 .3 % , w hen c o m pare d t o t h e p re vio u s t h re e-m on thp erio d . H ow eve r, d esp it e th is su sta in ed co n su m er d em an d in H 2 2 0 24, o n a y -o -yb asis , t h e v a lu e o f r e ta il t r a d e r o se b y 1 .1 % , w hile v o lu m e s lig h tly d ro p ped b y0.2 % .W it h in th e non -f o od pro d u ct ca te go ry , y-o -y perfo rm an ce sh ow ed m ix e dre su lt s . T h e la rg e st g ro w th w as o b se rv e d f o r c o sm etic a n d t o ile t a rtic le s, w hic hin cre ase d b y 4 .1 % , w hile th e la rg e st fa lls w ere re co rd ed fo r c o m pu te rs a n dte le co m munic a tio n s eq u ip m en t, co n tr a ctin g by 2.8 % , an d sh oes, le ath ergo od s a n d tr a ve l it e m s d ecre asin g b y 2 .7 % . O ve ra ll, c o n su m er d em an d w asn ot e n ou gh t o s u sta in s p ot r a te s.O n t h e in du str ia l s id e, t h ere h as b een a s lo w dow n. T h e I t a lia n g o ve rn m en t h asco m mit te d € 1.6 b illio n t o s u pport t h e a u to m otiv e s u pply c h ain in 2 024 b u t w illn ot o ffe r c a r p u rc h ase s u bsid ie s in 2 025. M ean w hile , a u to m otiv e o u tp u t inI t a ly is e xp ecte d to h ave fa lle n b elo w 5 00,0 00 v e h ic le s in 2 024, a s ig n if ic a n tdro p fr o m 751,0 00 in 2023. Ste lla n tis an nou nce d th at it is exp an din g it sm an ufa ctu rin g in It a ly , w it h in cre ase d p ro d u ctio n e xp ecte d to s ta rt in 2 026,sp ecif ic a lly ta rg e tin g h yb rid a n d co m pact ve h ic le p ro d u ctio n , d esp it e w eakd em an d fo r ele ctr ic ve h ic le s an d in cre ase d co m petit io n fr o m Chin esem an ufa ctu re rs .In lin e w it h th is , It a lia n m an ufa ctu re rs re p orte d a declin e in op era tin gco n dit io n s, w it h fu rth er r e d u ctio n s in o u tp u t a n d n ew o rd ers a s 2 024 c lo se d .Th e s lo w dow n in p ro d u ctio n a n d d em an d c a n p u t d ow nw ard s p re ssu re o nra te s, as le ss m an ufa ctu rin g o u tp u t w ill tr a n sla te in to fe w er go od s b ein gtr a n sp orte d .Th e s u sta in ed d eclin e in n ew o rd ers a ls o le d t o f a ste r in ve n to ry d ep le tio n , o nth e o th er h an d, th is c a n b oost ra te s u p a s in ve n to ry re sto ck in g ta ke s p la cea ft e r t h e b u sy s e aso n .M ark et S to ry © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202441O utlo ok Vo lu m e d ata in th e It a lia n m ark e t p ain ts a m ix e d p ic tu re , w it h a ste ad yin cre ase in c o n su m er s p en din g a t t h e e n d o f 2 024. P ro d u ctio n r e m ain s w eakb u t g o ve rn m en t in ve stm en t c o u ld p re ve n t v o lu m e f a lls in 2 025 . T h e c o st b asere m ain s e le va te d b u t th ere a re lit tle s ig n s o f g ro w in g c o st p re ssu re . In th eab se n ce o f u nfo re se en s h ock s, s te ad y g ro w th in d om estic It a lia n r o ad fr e ig h tra te s is e xp ecte d t o c o n tin ue. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Lo okin g f o rw ard , t h e It a lia n m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r m ig h t f a ce o th er c h alle n ge s.N orth ern It a ly is h om e to fa cto rie s th at s u pply th e c o m pon en ts to G erm ana u to m an ufa ctu re rs , a n d a s th e G erm an A uto s e cto r c o ols , it c o u ld g re atlyr e d u ce d em an d fo r th ese It a lia n m an ufa ctu re rs , th ere fo re r e d u cin g v o lu m esexp orte d a n d p u sh r a te s d ow n.Tru ck o p era tin g c o sts in It a ly s a w m od era te in cre ase s a cro ss c o m pon en ts int h e la te st q u arte r. T yre c o sts r o se b y 0 .2 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3 a n d 2 .1 %co m pare d to th e sa m e perio d la st ye ar. M ain te n an ce an d re p air co stsin cre ase d b y 0 .6 % q -o -q a n d 3 .0 % y -o -y . In su ra n ce c o sts s h ow ed th e la rg e stris e , in cre asin g b y 1 .2 % q -o -q a n d 7 .1 % y -o -y . T h e in cre ase s in c o sts a re in lin ew it h t h e s lig h t u pw ard s t r a je cto ry in c o n tr a ct r a te s s in ce J u ly o f t h is y e ar.Meth od olo gyTh e r a te s a re t h e r e su lt o f U pply ’s o w n e co n om etr ic a n d s ta tis tic a l m od ellin g,w hic h is b ase d o n t h e a n aly sis o f m ore t h an 7 50 m illio n p ric e s. U pply p ro vid es T ru ck L o ad (L T L & F T L) w eekly ra te s e stim atio n s b ase d o nob se rv e d t r a n sa ctio n s f o r e ach m ajo r E u ro p ean t r a d e la n es, a sso cia te d w it h ac o n fid en ce in dex. T h ese r a te s a re c o m pu te d f r o m U pply ’s k e y p artn ers a n d u se rs d ata . To c o m ple te t h e a n aly sis p re se n te d h ere , T i s e le cte d a r e p re se n ta tiv e s a m pleo f t h e la rg e st E u ro p ean r o ad f r e ig h t c o rrid ors b y v o lu m e. Ti t h en u se d t h e m ed ia n r a te s p ro vid ed b y U pply o n e ach c o rrid or, a ve ra gin gw eekly r a te s o ve r e ach q u arte r. T i’s t e am o f s e n io r a n aly sts p ro vid e a d dit io n alin sig h t in to t h e d riv e rs a n d t r e n ds b eh in d p ric e m ove m en ts w it h s u pport f r o mU pply . N ote t h at d ata is s u bje ct t o r e -s ta te m en ts a n d t h at n ew la n e s a m ple s c a n b ech ose n f r o m o n e q u arte r t o t h e n ext.42© A ll r ig h ts r e se rv e d . N o p art o f t h is p u blic a tio n m ay b e r e p ro d u ce d in a n y m ate ria l f o rm in clu din g p h oto co p yin g o r s to rin g itb y e le ctr o n ic m ean s w it h ou t t h e p erm is sio n o f t h e c o p yrig h t o w ners , T ra n sp ort I n te llig e n ce L im it e d / U pply / I R U . T h is r e p ort isb ase d u pon fa ctu al in fo rm atio n o b ta in ed fr o m a n um ber o f p u blic s o u rc e s. W hils t e ve ry e ffo rt is m ad e to e n su re th at th ein fo rm atio n is a ccu ra te , T ra n sp ort In te llig e n ce L im it e d a cce p ts n o r e sp on sib ilit y fo r a n y lo ss o r d am age c a u se d b y r e lia n ceu pon t h e in fo rm atio n in t h is r e p ort. T h is is n ot a c o m ple te a n aly sis o f e ve ry m ate ria l f a ct r e ga rd in g t h is c o m pan y. T h e o p in io n sexp re sse d h ere r e fle ct t h e ju dgm en t o f o u r a n aly sts a t t h is d ate a n d a re s u bje ct t o c h an ge .IR U , t h e w orld r o ad t r a n sp ort o rg a n is a tio n , h as 7 5 y e ars o f o n -t h e-gro u nd e xp erie n ce w it h a n etw ork o f 1 75 m em bers fr o m a ro u ndth e w orld . W e re p re se n t th e e n tir e in du str y – b u s, c o ach , tr u cka n d ta xi, a n d str iv e fo r th e su sta in ab le m ob ilit y o f p eo p le a n dgo od s a cro ss t h e p la n et. A s t h e v o ic e o f m ore t h an 3 .5 m illio n c o m pan ie s o p era tin g m ob ilit y a n d lo gis tic s s e rv ic e s in o ve r 1 00co u ntr ie s, I R U f o ste rs im pactfu l s o lu tio n s t o h elp t h e w orld m ove b ette r.W e b rin g a u niq u e p ers p ectiv e , b rid gin g t h e p u blic a n d p riv a te s e cto rs t o s u pport t r a d e, e co n om icg ro w th , jo b s, s a fe ty , t h e e n vir o n m en t a n d c o m munit ie s. IR U p ro vid es c o n cre te s e rv ic e s t o t r a n sp ort a n d lo gis tic s c o m pan ie s, r a n gin g f r o m r e p re se n ta tio n a tth e E u ro p ean a n d in te rn atio n al le ve l, t r a d e a n d t r a n sit t o ols , d riv e r s k ills a sse ssm en ts ( in clu din g e co -d riv in g), c o m pre h en siv e r e se arc h a n d in sig h ts w it h t h em atic w ork sh op s a n d r o u ndta b le s o nd eca rb on is a tio n , d riv e r s h orta ge s a n d d ig it a lis a tio n . Fo r m ore in fo r m atio n , p le ase c o n ta ct in fo rm atio n @ ir u .o rg w ww.i r u .o rg4 3U pply is t h e d ig it a l p la tfo rm f o r f r e ig h t t r a n sp ort p ro fe ssio n als . U pplyd esig n s a n d d eve lo p s c u ttin g-e d ge a n d in nova tiv e s o lu tio n s to h elps h ip p ers , ca rrie rs an d fo rw ard ers exp lo it th e fu ll pote n tia l ofd ig it is a tio n f o r t h eir b u sin ess.C om bin in g t r a n sp ort e xp ertis e a n d D ata S cie n ce , s in ce 2 018 U pply h as d eve lo p ed it s le ad in g s o lu tio n ,Sm art, f o r b en ch m ark in g, t r a ck in g a n d a n aly sin g g lo b al f r e ig h t r a te s. W it h S m art, s u pply c h ain p la ye rsc a n m ake f u lly e n lig h te n ed d ecis io n s a n d o p tim is e t h eir t r a n sp ort in ve stm en ts .T h ro u gh it s C on nect d ig it a l p la tfo rm , U pply d ir e ctly c o n nects s h ip pers w it h r o ad h au lie rs a n d f r e ig h tfo rw ard ers . A s a n o p era tio n al t o ol, C on nect s im plif ie s t r a n sp ort o p era tio n s b y a u to m atin g t h eirp ro ce sse s.T o d eve lo p t h ese u niq u e t e ch nolo gic a l s o lu tio n s, U pply e m plo ys d ata s c ie n tis ts , lo gis tic s p ro fe ssio n alsa n d d ig it a l e xp erts . T h e c o m pan y is b ase d in P aris a n d c o u nts 6 0 e m plo ye es.F o r f u rth er in fo rm atio n , p le ase c o n ta ct c u sto m er.s e rv ic e @ upply .c o m . u pply .c o mTi is o n e o f th e w orld ’s le ad in g p ro vid ers o f exp ert re se arc h an dan aly sis ded ic a te d to th e glo b al lo gis tic s in du str y . Utilis in g th eexp ertis e o f p ro fe ssio n als w it h m an y y e ars o f e xp erie n ce in th e m ail,e xp re ss a n d lo gis tic s in du str ie s, T ra n sp ort In te llig e n ce h as d eve lo p eda r a n ge o f m ark e t le ad in g w eb -b ase d p ro d u cts , r e p orts , p ro file s a n dse rv ic e s use d by m an y of th e w orld ’s le ad in g lo gis tic s su pplie rs ,c o n su lt a n cie s, b an ks a n d u se rs o f lo gis tic s.F o r f u rth er in fo r m atio n o r t o r e q u est a d em o o f G SC i - p le ase c o n ta ct M ic h ae l C lo ve r: + 44 ( 0 )1 666 51990 7 o r e m a il m clo ve r@ ti- in sig h t.c o m . ti- in sig h t.c o m [individuell5] => TH E E U RO PEA NR O AD F R EIG H T R A TED EV ELO PM EN TBEN CH M ARKQ4 2 024Eu ro p ean R oad F re ig h t R ate B en ch m arkE u ro p ean R oad F re ig h t R ate B en ch m ark M ap sO pera to r c o sts F ra n ce – S p ain G erm an y – P ola n d Fra n ce – G erm an y A ustr ia – G erm an yFra n ce - U KIt a ly D om estic R ate sM eth od olo gy 367 2 3263033363942C on te n ts2 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Rate d eve lo p m en tTh e E u ro p ean B en ch m ark tr e n d h as re ve rs e d s in ce la st q u arte r, w hen b othc o n tr a ct a n d s p ot r a te s fe ll. In Q 4 2 024, b oth in dic e s in cre ase d , a lt h ou gh t h eris e in s p ot r a te s w as m ore m arg in al t h an t h at o f t h e c o n tr a ct m ark e t.T h e c o n tr a ct r a te s in dex r e m ain ed a b ove s p ot r a te s, in cre asin g b y 2 .8 p oin tsq u arte r o n q u arte r (q -o -q ) in th e la st q u arte r o f 2 024 to 1 28.9 in dex p oin ts .C on tr a ct r a te s a re n ow d ow n 1 .4 in dex p oin ts y e ar o n y e ar ( y -o -y ). S p ot r a te s h ave r e m ain ed r e la tiv e ly s ta b le , in cre asin g o n ly m arg in ally b y 0 .5p oin ts q -o -q t o 1 23.9 . S p ot r a te s a re n ow d ow n 1 .0 p oin t y -o -y .T h e g a p b etw een sp ot a n d co n tr a ct ra te s is d iv e rg in g, w it h co n tr a ct ra te sris in g f a ste r t h an s p ot r a te s. T h e s p ot in dex f ir s t f e ll b elo w c o n tr a ct r a te s in Q 22023 an d has re m ain ed belo w th e co n tr a ct in dex fo r se ve n co n se cu tiv eq u arte rs . C urre n tly , t h e g a p s ta n ds a t 5 .0 in dex p oin ts , s lig h tly s m alle r t h an ay e ar a go w hen t h e g a p w as 5 .4 in dex p oin ts . T i x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n r o ad f r e ig h t b en ch m ark E u ro p ea n r o ad f r e ig h t r a te s i n dex, Q 4-2 024 3Source: UpplyE u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t M ark et B en ch m ark © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 20244Mark et S to ry D em an d-s id e i n flu en ce s o n r a te s A s c o n tr a cts r is e a n d s p ot r a te s m arg in ally in cre ase , E u ro p ean r o ad fr e ig h t isg ra d u ally r e co ve rin g a ft e r a s ig n if ic a n t d eclin e. T h e E U r e m ain s in a s ta te o fsta gn atio n : in Q 3 2 024, s e aso n ally a d ju ste d G DP in cre ase d b y 0 .3 % in t h e E U ,co m pare d w it h t h e p re vio u s q u arte r, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t.In te re st ra te s h ave e ase d , w it h th e E u ro p ean C en tr a l B an k lo w erin g th emth re e t im es s in ce M ay 2 024. F u rth er c u ts o f 1 25 b asis p oin ts a re e xp ecte d b yth e e n d o f 2 025, a cco rd in g to th e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n A utu m n F o re ca st.D esp it e th ese im pro ve m en ts , h ig h in te re st ra te s a n d lin ge rin g in fla tio n le dh ou se h old s to s a ve m ore a n d s p en d le ss. T h e s a vin gs r a te r o se to 1 4.8 % b ym id -2 024, th re e perc e n ta ge poin ts ab ove th e pre -p an dem ic ave ra ge .C on su m ptio n re m ain s re str a in ed b u t is s e t to g ra d u ally re co ve r a s in fla tio nslo w s a n d r e al in co m es im pro ve . C on su m er d em an d fo r g o od s w as s u bdu edin 2 023 a s s p en din g s h if t e d to w ard s s e rv ic e s in c o n tr a st to p re vio u s y e ars ,a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t, a s t h e t o p e xp en dit u re in cre ase f o r h ou se h old s w as t h ere sta u ra n ts a n d a cco m mod atio n s e rv ic e s c a te go ry , in cre asin g 4 .6 % in 2 023ve rs u s 2 022.A s d em an d s h if t e d fr o m g o od s t o s e rv ic e s, d ecre ase d d em an d fo r g o od s h asle d t o t r a n sp ort v o lu m es f a llin g y -o -y , a s r e ta il t r a d e, e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le s,fe ll 0 .8 % . Q uarte r-o n -q u arte r d em an d r e co ve re d fr o m a s lu ggis h Q 3 2 024, a su nad ju ste d r e ta il tr a d e v o lu m es in cre ase d 3 .8 % in th e b u ild u p to th e h olid ayse aso n . E u ro p ean p ort th ro u gh pu t re fle cte d so m e re co ve ry , w it h A ntw erps e ein g a 9 % y -o -y in cre ase in Q 3 2 024 a n d R otte rd am g ro w in g b y 3 % . M ostb u sin esse s r e p ort in ve n to ry le ve ls a s lo w o r a s d esir e d . R esto ck in g e ffo rts inc o m bin atio n w it h h ig h er p ort vo lu m es h ave h ad a n u pw ard s p re ssu re o nra te s. D esp it e im pro vin g co n su m er dem an d, Eu ro p e’s man ufa ctu rin g se cto rco n tin ues to str u ggle wit h hig h en erg y pric e s an d weak in te rn atio n alco m petit iv e n ess. P ro d u ctio n v o lu m es f e ll 0 .3 % q -o -q a n d 0 .8 % y -o -y . E le ctr ic it ya n d f o ssil f u els a cco u nt f o r 7 % t o 9 % o f t h e in du str y p ro d u ctio n c o sts d ir e ctly ,a cco rd in g t o t h e E u ro p ean c o m m is sio n . T h e d if fic u lt ie s in p ro d u ctio n a re lik e lyt o lo w er c o n tr a ct d em an d fo r r o ad fr e ig h t a s E u ro p ean in du str ie s s tr u ggle t ok e ep u p t h eir lo n g-t e rm p ro d u ctio n le ve ls . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 20245 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Su pply -s id e i n flu en ce s o n r a te s I n Q 4 2 024, co sts ro se a cro ss a ll co m pon en ts e xce p t d ie se l, w hic h fe ll b y11.7 % . L a b ou r c o sts in th e E U 27 in cre ase d b y 5 % y -o -y , w it h d riv e r w age s b ein g th e fa ste st-g ro w in g co st co m pon en t. Pers is te n t driv e r sh orta ge s,5 00,0 00 v a ca n cie s (1 2% o f a ll p osit io n s), c o n tin ue to c h alle n ge th e in du str ya n d a re lik e ly to p u sh b oth c o n tr a ct a n d s p ot ra te s h ig h er, d u e to a va ila b lec a p acit y c o n str a in ts c o u ple d w it h t h e r is in g c o sts o f d riv e rs a s t h ey a re in s h orts u pply . A s a r e su lt , w hils t d ie se l e ase d s u pply p re ssu re o n r a te s, t h e c o st b ase is n owextr e m ely h ig h , a n d la b ou r c o sts c o n tin ue t o p u sh it f u rth er. T h is h as c re ate dan e n vir o n m en t o f lo w p ro fit m arg in w hic h c a n f a cilit a te a f e w m ore c o st f a lls ,a n d sm all co st in cre ase s o r su pply d is ru ptio n s a re in cre asin g p ric e s e ve nw hils t d em an d r e m ain s w eak . N ew ca p acit y e n te rin g th e m ark e t h as b een co n str a in ed , a s h ig h lig h te d b yA CEA ’s Q 3 2 024 d ata o n h eavy -g o od s v e h ic le (H GV) re gis tr a tio n s. N ew H GVre gis tr a tio n s d ro p ped b y 2 9% in t h e E U . D ie se l t r u ck s a cco u nte d fo r 9 5.3 % o fre gis tr a tio n s in th e fir s t n in e m on th s o f 2 024, d esp it e a 7 .3 % y -o -y d eclin e.Ele ctr ic a lly ch arg e ab le tr u ck re gis tr a tio n s fe ll b y 6 .6 % , m ain ta in in g a 2 .2 %m ark e t s h are6 Ti x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t B en ch m ark M ap – Q 4 2 024 C on tr a ct R ate s Ti x U pply x I R U E u ro p ea n R oad F re ig h t B en ch m ark M ap – Q 4 2 024 Sp ot R ate s Source: UpplySource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024In dex o f d ie se l p ric e s a t p u m p [ 1 ] EU w eig h te d a ve ra ge d ie se l p ric e : € 1 .5 7/L ( 3 0 /1 2/2 024) A ft e r fa ll in g to it s lo w est v a lu e s in ce Ja n uary 2 023 a t th e e n d o f S e p te m ber(r e ach in g € 1.5 0/L ), t h e E U w eig h te d a ve ra ge d ie se l p ric e r e ach ed € 1.5 7/L o n 3 0D ece m ber (+ 4.6 % v e rs u s S e p te m ber). H ow eve r, it w as s till w ell b elo w p eaksse en in 2 023 ( 1 .7 9/L a t t h e e n d o f S e p te m ber 2 023). 7O pera to r c o stsFu el p ric e sSource: xavvy, index of average weekly [1] diesel price at the pump (including taxes) by country (in local currency)Index, 2021 = 100D ie se l © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [1] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service.8Die se l p ric e s in cre ase d e arly O cto b er p u sh ed u p b y c ru de o il p ric e s, a s th eesc a la tio n o f t h e c o n flic t in t h e M id dle E ast r a is e d t h e p ossib ilit y o f o il s u pplyd is ru ptio n s. T h e B re n t cru de o il sp ot m on th ly a ve ra ge p ric e in cre ase d b y$2/b arre l ( b ) in O cto b er v e rs u s t h e p re vio u s m on th , a n d t h e E U a ve ra ge d ie se lp ric e re ach ed € 1.5 3/L . B oth c ru de o il a n d E U d ie se l p ric e s lig h tly fe ll in th ese co n d h alf o f O cto b er, a ft e r th e m ilit a ry re sp on se to m is sile a tta ck s o f 1O cto b er d id n ot ta rg e t o il in fr a str u ctu re . A ddit io n ally , s ig n s o f w eake n in g o ild em an d g ro w th ( e sp ecia lly in C hin a) a ls o w eig h ed o n p ric e s. F ro m N ove m ber a n d u ntil th e e n d o f th e y e ar, c ru de o il p ric e s h ave s lig h tlyd ecre ase d , w it h t h e B re n t c ru de o il s p ot p ric e a ve ra gin g $ 74 p er b arre l (b ) inD ece m ber, u nch an ge d fr o m N ove m ber a n d $ 1 le ss t h an it s O cto b er a ve ra ge .Th is h as b een d esp it e t h e a n nou nce m en t o f O PEC + m em bers o n 5 D ece m bero n th eir agre em en t to exte n d vo lu nta ry cu ts [2 ] (w hic h w ere se t to begra d u ally p h ase d o u t fr o m Ja n uary 2 025 o n a m on th ly b asis ) u ntil A pril 2 025.H ow eve r, t h e E U d ie se l p ric e h as f o llo w ed a r e ve rs e d t r e n d, s lig h tly in cre asin gove r t h e s a m e p erio d , d u e t o a s tr o n ge r U S d olla r (+ 7.2 % U SD -E U R e xch an gera te b etw een e n d o f S e p te m ber a n d e n d o f D ece m ber, re ach in g le ve ls n otse en sin ce en d 2022) m akin g oil pric e s fo r non -d olla r co u ntr ie s m oree xp en siv e . In early Ja n uary , cru de o il p ric e s an d EU d ie se l p ric e s in cre ase d sh arp ly ,re ach in g a w eekly a ve ra ge o f $ 7 8/b a n d 1 .6 0/L , re sp ectiv e ly , b y th e s e co n dw eek of Ja n uary . H ow eve r, th ey sta rte d to d eclin e m id -Ja n uary aft e r th ean nou nce m en t o f a 4 2-d ay c e ase -f ir e a gre em en t b etw een Is ra e l a n d H am as,e asin g s u pply c o n ce rn s in t h e M id dle E ast. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [2] 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts (announced in November 2023 by 8 members of OPEC+), that were set to expireat the end of June 2024 but have been continuously delayed. Initially, the group planned to gradually phase themout from on a monthly basis from October 2024 until the end of September 2025 (even if the phase out remainedsubject to market conditions), but the beginning of the phase out was postponed to January and has beenpostponed again to April 2025.9Die se l p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 C N G a n d L N G p ric e s [ 3 ]D ie se l p ow ertr a in s c u rre n tly a cco u nt f o r 9 9% o f t r u ck s in t h e E U . H ow eve r, t h etr a n sit io n to net-z e ro em is sio n s has sp ark e d in te re st in alt e rn ativ ep ow ertr a in s su ch as co m pre sse d n atu ra l ga s (C N G), liq u efie d n atu ra l ga s(L N G), an d b atte ry - e le ctr ic ve h ic le s (B EV ). W it h ou t fo rg e ttin g th at cu rre n tdie se l p ow ertr a in s c a n le ve ra ge H VO t o r e d u ce t h eir e m is sio n s b y o ve r 8 0+% .In Q 3 2 024, 6 3,0 00 t r u ck s u sin g a lt e rn ativ e p ow ertr a in s w ere r e gis te re d in t h e EU , w it h C N G t r u ck s b ein g t h e la rg e st in n um ber (5 6% ), f o llo w ed b y B EV (2 5% )an d LN G (1 8% ). Fo r th e fir s t tim e, B EV s beca m e th e le ad in g alt e rn ativ ep ow ertr a in s o ld a t tr u ck d eale rs h ip s, s u rp assin g C N G w it h n ew re gis tr a tio nsh are s o f 2 .1 % a n d 1 .9 % , r e sp ectiv e ly [ 4 ].[3] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service. [4] https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/transport-mode/road/european-union-eu27/vehicles-and- fleetLo ca l n atu ra l g a s p ro d u ctio n in t h e E U h as b een d eclin in g o ve r t h e la st d eca d e,h ig h lig h tin g th e blo c’s re lia n ce on im ports . Th e ge o p olit ic a l la n dsc a p e,p artic u la rly t h e w ar in U kra in e, h as im pacte d n atu ra l g a s im ports a n d a ffe cte dC N G a n d L N G p ric in g, w hic h s o are d in 2 022. L N G e xp erie n ce d s h arp er s p ik e s,e sp ecia lly in G erm an y a n d It a ly . A lt h ou gh p ric e s fo r b oth fu els h ave sin ced ecre ase d , th ey re m ain h ig h er th an p re -2 022 le ve ls . L N G h as sh ow n m ores ta b ilit y in r e ce n t y e ars . B ut it s till c o sts m ore t h an C N G in m ost m ark e ts . C N Gan d LN G p ric e s are cu rre n tly fa cin g an u pw ard tr e n d, w hic h w ill als o b ein flu en ce d b y f u tu re t a xa tio n lin ke d t o t h e E U e m is sio n s t r a d in g s y ste m ( E TS2 ). O ve r t h e p ast m on th s, n atu ra l g a s p ric e s h ave in cre ase d d u e t o a c o n flu en ceo f f a cto rs : P artic u la rly c o ld w eath er h as c a u se d a s h arp in cre ase in h eatin g d em an d,ca u sin g E U g a s in ve n to rie s t o b e d ep le te d a t t h e f a ste st p ace s in ce 2 021. A tth e sa m e tim e, d eclin in g w in d e n erg y g e n era tio n h as fo rc e d u tilit ie s tor e p la ce re d u ce d re n ew ab le e n erg y w it h g a s-f ir e d p la n ts . T h is h as d riv e nth e E U ’s g a s s to ra ge le ve ls b elo w t h e 9 0% t a rg e t c a p acit y . G azp ro m u nexp ecte d ly s to p ped s u pplie s t o A ustr ia in N ove m ber, s p ark in gco n ce rn s ab ou t bro ad er dis ru ptio n s. In ad dit io n , th e pip elin e tr a n sita gre em en t b etw een R ussia a n d U kra in e, w hic h su pplie s 5 % o f E U g a sim ports e xp ir e d a t t h e e n d o f 2 024. T h is w ill e sp ecia lly im pact c o u ntr ie s inE aste rn an d Cen tr a l Eu ro p e (e sp ecia lly Hunga ry an d Slo va kia ). Th eEu ro p ean C om mis sio n h as la id ou t se ve ra l so lu tio n s to h elp affe cte dco u ntr ie s, in clu din g fillin g n eed s th ro u gh s u pplie s o f G re ek, T u rk is h a n dR om an ia n g a s v ia t h e T ra n s-B alk a n r o u te . A cco rd in g t o t h e in du str y o rg a n is a tio n G as In fr a str u ctu re E u ro p e, t h e v o lu m eof g a s in th e E U 's s to ra ge fa cili t ie s d ecre ase d b y a b ou t 2 4% fr o m th e e n d o fSe p te m ber t o t h e e n d o f D ece m ber. A t t h e e n d o f D ece m ber, g a s s to ra ge w asa t 7 2% o f t o ta l c a p acit y , v e rs u s 8 6 % in D ece m ber 2 023. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 1011 CN G p ric e s a t p u m p Source: xavvy, average weekly CNG price at pump (including taxes) LN G p ric e s a t p u m p Source: Xavvy, average weekly LNG price at pump (including taxes) © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 CN G a n d L N G p ric e s, in flu en ce d b y r a w m ate ria l c o sts , d is tr ib u tio n a n d t a xe s,sh ow s ig n if ic a n t n atio n al d is p arit ie s. In 2 023, S p ain h ad t h e lo w est C N G p ric e ,fo llo w ed c lo se ly b y It a ly (w hic h e xp la in s th e p op u la rit y o f C N G tr u ck s in b othc o u ntr ie s), w hile S w ed en h ad t h e h ig h est d u e t o h ig h er t a xe s.12 CN G p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: Xavvy, including taxes. Please note that for Finland, prices are for November 2024 LN G p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: Xavvy, including taxes. For Netherlands, showing monthly average November 2024 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024HVO p ric e s [ 5 ]H VO , a ls o re fe rre d to a s re n ew ab le d ie se l, is a b io fu el m ad e fr o m w astep ro d u cts s u ch a s c o okin g o il, a n im al f a t, t a llo w , f is h o ils a n d t e ch nic a l c o rn o il.I t is co n sid ere d a n a lt e rn ativ e fu el b eca u se , o n a w ell- t o -w heel a cco u ntin gbasis , it e m it s a b ou t 0 .5 2 k g o f C O 2 p er lit r e , o n a ve ra ge , in th e E U , w hic h is8 5% le ss t h an d ie se l. T h e a d va n ta ge s o f H VO , c o m pare d w it h d ie se l, in clu de le ss t a ilp ip e p ollu ta n ts(b ette r tr a d e-o ff betw een partic u la te m atte rs an d nit r o ge n oxid es) an dco m patib ilit y w it h a m od ern d ie se l e n gin e. H ow eve r, it s d is a d va n ta ge s in clu dea h ig h er p ric e a n d m ore lim it e d a va ila b ilit y . N ot a ll E U c o u ntr ie s a llo w th edis tr ib u tio n o f H VO a t p u blic re fu ellin g sta tio n s (C yp ru s, G re ece , H unga ry ,L a tv ia , Lit h uan ia , Lu xe m bou rg , M alt a , P ortu ga l an d Slo ve n ia d o n ot h avep u blic H VO r e fu ellin g s ta tio n s.) T h ere a re a ls o d is p arit ie s in t h e d en sit y o f H VOre fu ellin g s ta tio n s w it h in th e E U . T h e N eth erla n ds h as th e g re ate st d en sit y ,w hile F ra n ce a n d R om an ia h ave t h e lo w est d en sit y o f H VO r e fu ellin g s ta tio n s,w it h fiv e a n d t w o p u blic s ta tio n s d is tr ib u tin g H VO , r e sp ectiv e ly . H ow eve r, t h esit u atio n is evo lv in g ra p id ly , as th e n um ber o f sta tio n s in Eu ro p e tr ip le db etw een M arc h a n d J u ly 2 024. Th e n ext m ap s h ow s th e m on th ly p ric e fo r H VO a t th e p u m p in D ece m ber2 024. In g e n era l, H VO is b etw een € 0.1 0/L to € 0.6 0/L m ore e xp en siv e th and ie se l, e xce p t in I t a ly w here H VO a n d d ie se l h ad t h e s a m e p ric e p er lit r e d u e t og o ve rn m en t s u bsid ie s. 13 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [5] Access diesel and alternative fuel prices at pump in more than 65 countries with up to 10 years historical dataat IRU Intelligence - fuel prices service.14 HVO p ric e s a t p u m p ( m on th ly a ve ra ge , D ece m ber 2 0 24) Source: xavvy, including taxes and subsidies © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202415Oth er d eve lo p m en ts i m pactin g c o sts[6] Meeting minutes are available on the European Commission’s website [7] Updates on national implementation plans and methods are periodically updated in IRU’s Flash Info Service. Itis an online service providing selected relevant real-time country information notably on road traffic, strikes,blockades and roadworks affecting commercial road transport.A s p art o f M ob ilit y P ack a ge 1 , tr a n sp ort o p era to rs h ave th e o b lig a tio n tor e tr o fit all ve h ic le s re gis te re d in th e EU an d in te n ded fo r cro ss-b ord ero p era tio n s w it h th e S m art T a ch ogra p h V ers io n 2 (G 2V 2). D ep en din g o n th ecu rre n t ty p e o f ta ch ogra p h in sta lle d in th e v e h ic le , th ere a re tw o a p plic a b led ead lin es: D ead lin e 1 – re p la ce th e an alo gu e an d d ig it a l ta ch ogra p h (G 1) b y 31D ece m ber 2 024 D ead lin e 2 – r e p la ce t h e f ir s t g e n era tio n o f t h e s m ar t t a ch ogra p h ( G 2V 1) b y 19 A ugu st 2 025 Fo llo w in g IR U ’s ca ll, b ase d o n cle ar e vid en ce th at a sig n if ic a n t n um ber o ftr a n sp ort op era to rs wou ld not be pre p are d to co n tin ue cro ss-b ord ero p era tio n s a s o f 1 Ja n uary d u e to d ela ys in th e re tr o fit w it h th e G 2V 2, th een fo rc e m en t of th e dead lin e fo r re tr o fit tin g cro ss-b ord er ve h ic le s w it ha n alo gu e o r fir s t-g e n era tio n d ig it a l ta ch ogra p h s (G 1) h as b een p ostp on edfr o m 1 J a n uary t o 2 8 F e b ru ary 2 025. T h is d ecis io n f o llo w s a c o n se n su s r e ach edb y M em ber S ta te s in E U th e R oad T ra n sp ort C om mit te e, p ro vid in g o p era to rse xtr a t im e t o m eet t h e G 2V 2 r e q u ir e m en ts [ 6 ]. D urin g t h is g ra ce p erio d , t r a n sp ort o p era to rs w ho t h at h ave n ot y e t r e tr o fit te dth eir v e h ic le s w ill n ot fa ce s a n ctio n s. In ste ad , e ffo rts w ill b e m ad e to fu rth erra is e th eir a w are n ess o f th e re tr o fit tin g re q u ir e m en t. T h is m easu re a im s toh elp o p era to rs a n d m an ufa ctu re rs a d dre ss th e r e tr o fit b ack lo g a n d m in im is ed is ru ptio n t o c ro ss-b ord er t r a n sp ort a n d E U s u pply c h ain s. T h e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n h as in vit e d M em ber S ta te s t o s h are t h eir n atio n alim ple m en ta tio n p la n s a n d m eth od s f o r in fo rm in g o p era to rs [ 7 ]. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202416O utlo okDem an d s id e a n d r a te sEu ro p e is in cre asin gly a d op tin g n ears h orin g s tr a te gie s to m in im is e r is k s a n dre d u ce c o sts , w hic h is s h if t in g m an ufa ctu rin g a n d s h ip pin g d em an d g ra d u allyt o P o la n d, R om an ia , a n d T ü rk iy e , t h is t r e n d is lik e ly t o c o n tin ue in t h e m ed iu m to lo n g te rm . In te rm s o f c o n su m er d em an d, In fla tio n re m ain s a fa cto r b u tris in g w age s a n d im pro vin g p u rc h asin g p ow er a re h elp in g to s lo w ly r e vit a lis ed em an d.EU r e gu la tio n s a im in g a t g u id in g th e in du str y to w ard s r e ach in g s u sta in ab ilit yt a rg e ts , su ch a s th e o n go in g im ple m en ta tio n o f th e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e(w it h D en m ark b ein g th e la te st co u ntr y to in tr o d u ce m ile age ch arg in g inJ a n uary 2 025), a s w ell a s t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f E TS II f o r r o ad t r a n sp ort f r o mJa n uary 2 027, w ill in cre ase c o sts a n d e xe rt u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s. I n co n clu sio n , it is exp ecte d th at th e d em an d la n dsc a p e th ro u gh ou t th eco n tin en t is s h if t in g in lin e w it h n ears h orin g r e q u ir e m en ts , w hic h c a n h ave a nu pw ard s p re ssu re o n ra te s. D em an d fo r n ew ca p acit y h as co ole d a ft e r ap erio d o f d is ru ptio n s o it is n ot e xp ecte d t o p u t p re ssu re o n r a te s in t h e s h ortto m ed iu m te rm . H ow eve r, C O 2 re gu la tio n s w ill d riv e a fu rth er in cre ase inz e ro -e m is sio n v e h ic le s in t h e lo n g t e rm . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202417A cco rd in g to th e U nit e d S ta te s E n erg y In fo rm atio n A ge n cy (E IA ) fo re ca sts ,c ru de o il p ric e s w ill r is e m od estly in t h e c o m in g m on th s d u e t o t h e e xte n sio n of O PEC + p ro d u ctio n c u ts , le ad in g to g lo b al o il in ve n to ry w it h dra w als o f 0 .5m illio n b /d o n a ve ra ge in Q 1 2 025. A s a re su lt , th ey e xp ect B re n t c ru de o ilp ric e s to in cre ase to a n a ve ra ge o f $ 76/b in Q 1 2 025, u p fr o m th eir $ 74/bD ece m ber a ve ra ge . H ow eve r, fo llo w in g th is in it ia l u pw ard p re ssu re in e arly 2 025, m ark e ts a ree xp ecte d to re tu rn to in ve n to ry b u ild s a n d th us d ecre asin g o il p ric e s fr o mm id -2 025, a s g ro w th in g lo b al o il p ro d u ctio n o u tp ace s g ro w th in o il d em an d.O PEC + co u ntr ie s are exp ecte d to in cre ase pro d u ctio n by Q 2 2025, an dpro d u ctio n g ro w th fr o m n on -O PEC + w ill a ls o c o n tin ue (e ve n if a t a s lo w erp ace th an in p re vio u s y e ars ), o ffs e tt in g a w eak g ro w th in g lo b al o il d em an d. EIA e xp ects B re n t c ru de o il p ric e s to a ve ra ge $ 72/b in D ece m ber 2 025 a n d$74/b in 2 025. Sig n if ic a n t u nce rta in tie s r e m ain w it h in t h is f o re ca st: O PEC + m em bers c o u ld c o n tin ue t o d ela y t h e p h asin g o u t o f v o lu nta ry c u ts(n ow s e t t o s ta rt in A pril 2 025). C han ge s in e co n om ic g ro w th a n d o th er fa cto rs c o u ld s ig n if ic a n tly c h an geth e g lo b al o il c o n su m ptio n f o re ca st ( w hic h n ow s h ow s g ro w th t h at r e m ain sbelo w it s p re -p an dem ic a ve ra ge ) Th e M id dle -E ast c o n flic t h as in je cte d s ig n if ic a n t u nce rta in ty a n d v o la tilit yin to o il m ark e ts a n d fu tu re d eve lo p m en ts h ave th e p ote n tia l to in flu en ceo il p ric e s. T h e c u rre n t 4 2-d ay c e ase - f ir e is t h e s e co n d s in ce t h e b egin nin gof t h e w ar, lo n ge r a n d m ore c o n se q u en tia l t h an t h e f ir s t (w ee klo n g p au seo n e a y e ar a go ) h as th e p ote n tia l to e n d th e fig h tin g, b u t te n sio n s c o u lde sc a la te a ga in . N eve rth ele ss, s h ou ld t h is h ap pen , t h ere h ave n ot b een a n yoil s u pply d is ru ptio n s s o fa r, a n d e ve n if th ere w ere , th ere is a s ig n if ic a n tsu rp lu s o f c ru de o il p ro d u ctio n c a p acit y a va ila b le w hic h c o u ld c o ve r a n ypote n tia l. F u el c o sts S u pply s id e © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Th is fo re ca st w as c o m ple te d b efo re th e U nit e d S ta te s is su ed a d dit io n alsa n ctio n s ta rg e tin g R ussia ’s oil se cto r on 10 Ja n uary , w hic h h ave th epote n tia l t o r e d u ce R ussia ’s o il e xp orts t o t h e g lo b al m ark e t. T h e E u ro p ean C om mis sio n h as r e ce n tly im ple m en te d s e ve ra l r e gu la tio n s a n ddir e ctiv e s to g u id e in du str ie s to w ard s a ch ie vin g ca rb on n eu tr a lit y b y 2 050:C O 2 s ta n dard s fo r n ew v e h ic le s, th e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e fo r to ll ta xe s (s e ese ctio n o n t o llin g c o sts f o r m ore d eta ils ), C ou ntE m is sio n sE U f o r C O 2 r e p ortin g,a n d E u ro 7 fo r p ollu ta n t e m is sio n s. M ost o f th ese re gu la tio n s w ill im pactv e h ic le s’ t o ta l c o st o f o w ners h ip , b u t t h ey w ill n ot d ir e ctly a ffe ct fu el p ric e s a tth e p u m p. H ow eve r, w it h th e in te gra tio n o f r o ad tr a n sp ort (p riv a te c a rs a n dco m merc ia l v e h ic le s) in to E TS2 b y 2 027, a n in cre ase in f o ssil f u el p ric e s b ase do n th eir c a rb on c o n te n t is a n tic ip ate d . In th e lo n g ru n, th is a ls o m ean s le ssd em an d f o r d ie se l p ow ertr a in s. B ase d o n t h e t a n k-t o -w heel a p pro ach , b u rn in g 1 lit r e o f d ie se l e m it s 2 .6 2kg o fC O 2, w hile 1 kg o f n atu ra l ga s, e it h er LN G o r C N G, e m it s 2 .3 1kg o f C O 2.In te gra tin g r o ad tr a n sp ort in to E TS2 m ean s th at th e c a rb on c o n te n t o f fo ssilf u els u se d b y tr u ck s w ill h ave a p ric e se t b y a ca rb on e xch an ge m ark e t,s ta rtin g a t a m in im um o f € 45 p er t o n ne o f C O 2, w it h n o m axim um v a lu e. H VOis n ot e xp ecte d to b e affe cte d b y su ch ta xa tio n an d is th us e xp ecte d tob eco m e m ore c o m petit iv e p ric e w is e . T h e g ra p h b elo w s h ow s t h e lin k b etw eenca rb on p ric in g a n d fo ssil fu el ta xa tio n fo r d ie se l a n d n atu ra l g a s, e xclu din gad dit io n al v a lu e-a d ded t a xe s t h at E U c o u ntr ie s m ig h t a p ply . 18Source: IRU © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Im pact o f E T S2 p ric in g o n f o ssil f u el p ric e s19T o llin g c o sts a re e xp ecte d t o c o n tin ue in cre asin g in 2 025.O n o n e h an d, t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f D ir e ctiv e (E U ) 2 022/3 62 a m en din g th e Eu ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e is s till u nderw ay. D en m ark is t h e la te st c o u ntr y t o im ple m en t it , p assin g fr o m a t im e-b ase dfe e t o d is ta n ce -b ase d o n e, w it h C O 2 c la ss d if fe re n tia tio n , jo in in g G erm an y,A ustr ia , C ze ch ia a n d H unga ry . In D en m ark , tr u ck s w it h a g ro ss c o m bin edw eig h t (G CW ) gre ate r th an 12 to n nes are su bje ct to th e new CO 2co m pon en t f ir s t, w hile t r u ck s o f 3 .5 t o n nes a n d a b ove a s o f 1 J a n uary 2 027.A s o f 1 Ja n uary 2 025, th e to ll a p plie s to th e m ain p art o f th e s ta te ro adn etw ork , a n d p arts o f th e m unic ip al r o ad n etw ork (in to ta l a p pro xim ate ly1 0,9 00km ). It is t h e in te n tio n o f t h e D an is h g o ve rn m en t t h at t h e r o ad t o llw ill a p p ly to th e e n tir e D an is h p u blic r o ad n etw ork a s o f 1 Ja n uary 2 028(a p pro xim ate ly 7 5,0 00km ). L o w -e m is sio n zo n es w here tr u ck s w ill p ay ag re ate r C O 2 co m pon en t are bein g se t in C op en hage n , Fre d erik sb erg ,O den se , Aarh us an d Aalb org . Th is new to ll will be re d u ce d byap pro xim ate ly 1 9% in 2 025–-2 027, a n d b y a p pro xim ate ly 1 2% in 2 028 d u eto a r e ce n t p olit ic a l a gre em en t. Th e N eth erla n ds, S w ed en a n d L u xe m bou rg a re e xp ecte d t o c o m munic a tet h e n ew C O 2-b ase d p ric e s d if fe re n tia tio n in M arc h t h is y e ar. P ola n d, B ulg a ria , R om an ia , a n d B elg iu m a re a ctiv e ly d is c u ssin g p la n s fo rim ple m en ta tio n in th e n ear fu tu re . M ean w hile , o th er c o u ntr ie s a re e it h eraw ait in g th e exp ir a tio n of th eir cu rre n t co n ce ssio n co n tr a cts or h avere ce iv e d r e m in ders fr o m th e C om mis sio n to ta ke a ctio n a n d a d va n ce th epro ce ss [ 8 ]. T o llin g c o sts © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 [8] In May 2024, 16 Member States (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain) received a formal notice from the EUCommission to move on the implementation of the Eurovignette Directive in their countries. Changes might thencome soon for these countries.20W hat i s t h e u pdate d o f C O 2 t o ll i m ple m en ta tio n a cro ss E u ro p e? Tolling increases by country for a Euro VI Class 1 truck Source: IRUA ddit io n ally , s e ve ra l m em bers h ave in cre ase d th eir to lls a t th e s ta rt o f 2 025,w hile o th er in cre ase s a re e xp ecte d t h is y e ar. T o d ate , t h e c h an ge s c o m pare dto 3 1/1 2/2 024 a re s h ow n b elo w : © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202421T h e p erc e n ta ge s s h ow n a re fo r a c la ss 1 E u ro V I a rtic u la te d v e h ic le , m ad e o ftw o axle s ro ad tr a cto r an d th re e axle s se m i- t r a ile r. A ustr ia h as se en th esta rk e st in cre ase (+ 12% ). A m on g th e o th er c h an ge s, B elg iu m ’s 3 % is fo r th eW allo n ia re gio n , w it h p ric e s n ow in dexe d to in fla tio n ra te . L a tv ia is s e ein g ap ric e d ecre ase fo r th is sp ecif ic ve h ic le , w hic h is n ot tr u e fo r o ld er tr u ck s.P ortu ga l p artly r e m ove d to lls o n it s h ig h w ays w hile it in cre ase d th e p ric e o noth ers . T h e in cre ase s h ow n fo r D en m ark c o rre sp on ds t o t h e im ple m en ta tio nof t h e E u ro vig n ette D ir e ctiv e . A p ric e h ik e in t o lls is e xp ecte d la te r in 2 025 f o r Fra n ce , a s w ell a s t h e N eth erla n ds, S w ed en , a n d L u xe m bou rg . T h ese c o u ntr ie sw ill a n nou nce t h e n ew C O 2-b ase d p ric e d if fe re n tia tio n in M arc h . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 To llin g s c h em es u pdate 2 025 Tolling increases 2025 versus 31/12/2024 for a Euro VI Class 1 truck in 2025 Source: IRU22 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O th er d eve lo p m en ts i m pactin g c o stsT h e E U r e gu la tio n o n C O 2 s ta n dard s fo r n ew v e h ic le s s e ts it s fir s t t a rg e ts fo rJu ly 2 025 , fo cu sin g o n ro ad tr a cto rs a n d h eavy lo rrie s. T ru ck m an ufa ctu re rsh ave t o lo w er t h eir s a le s-b ase d e m is sio n s b y 1 5% c o m pare d t o t h e 2 019–2 020b ase lin e. T o d ate , o n ly o n e m an ufa ctu re r is o n tr a ck to m eet it s E U ta rg e ts .T h is w ill p ote n tia lly le ad t o a p ric e in cre ase f o r n ew t r u ck s d u e t o t h e p ote n tia lfin es m an ufa ctu re rs w ill h ave to fa ce [9 ]. A noth er p ossib le im plic a tio n is th elo w erin g of ze ro -e m is sio n ve h ic le s’ re ta il pric e , bu t it still need s to beob se rv e d .[9] https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-emissions-trucks-manufacturers-2021-reporting-dec24/Paris - M ad rid R oad F re ig h t R ate sR ate s O n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m M ad rid t o P aris , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 3 .5 % q -o -q to € 1,4 58 (€ 1.1 5/k m ), w hile sp ot ra te s in cre ase d b y 4 .5 % q -o -q , re ach in g€1,4 84 (€ 1.1 7/k m ). Y e ar o n y e ar, c o n tr a ct ra te s d eclin ed b y 5 .0 % , a n d s p otra te s f e ll b y 2 .1 % .On t h e b ack h au l r o u te f r o m P aris t o M ad rid , c o n tr a ct r a te s in cre ase d b y 3 .1 %fr o m th e p re vio u s q u arte r to € 1,8 03 (€ 1.4 2/k m ), w hile s p ot r a te s d ro p ped b y5.1 % , s e ttlin g a t € 1,7 59 (€ 1.3 8/k m ). C om pare d to th e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar,c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 6 .0 % , w hile s p ot r a te s d ecre ase d b y 2 .3 % . Sp ot r a te s w ere 1 .8 % h ig h er th an c o n tr a ct r a te s o n th e h ead h au l, a n d 2 .5 %lo w er th an co n tr a ct ra te s o n th e b ack h au l. Th e ga p n arro w ed fr o m la stq u arte rs , w hen t h e s p ot r a te w as 6 .0 % a b ove t h e c o n tr a ct r a te .23S p ain - F ra n ceSource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202424M ark et s to ryIn Q 3 2024, Eu ro p ean co n su m ers re p orte d ca u tio u s o p tim is m . Sta b ilis in ghou se h old fin an ce s a n d re d u ce d in fla tio n co n ce rn s d ro ve th is in cre ase ino p tim is m . T h is is r e fle cte d in t h e F re n ch d em an d e n vir o n m en t, a s IN SE E d atas h ow ed th at h ou se h old co n su m ptio n in F ra n ce slig h tly in cre ase d sp en din gacro ss ca te go rie s q-o -q . Fo od co n su m ptio n in cre ase d by 0.8 % q-o -q bu tre m ain ed d ow n 0 .1 % y -o -y . C on su m ptio n o f e n gin eere d p ro d u cts r o se b y 0 .9 %q -o -q bu t re m ain ed 0.6 % belo w Q 3 2024 le ve ls . In co n tr a st, hou se h oldd u ra b le s d eclin ed 0 .8 % q -o -q b u t r e m ain ed u p 1 .3 % y -o -y . S p ain 's m an ufa ctu rin g la n dsc a p e o u tp erfo rm ed th e E u ro a re a c o n sis te n tly inH 2 2 0 24, a s S p ain 's m an ufa ctu rin g P M I r o se t o 5 3.3 in D ece m ber, m ark in g 1 1co n se cu tiv e m on th s a b ove t h e 5 0.0 g ro w th t h re sh old . S tr o n g e xp ort d em an dfr o m E u ro p e a n d N orth A fr ic a b ooste d p ro d u ctio n a n d n ew o rd ers . T h e B an kof S p ain r a is e d it s 2 024 g ro w th f o re ca st t o 3 .1 % , in dic a tin g a p osit iv e d em an den vir o n m en t. Th is h as in cre ase d th e vo lu m e e xp ecta tio n s fo r lo n ge r-t e rmc o n tr a cts a n d p ro vid ed s ig n if ic a n t u pw ard s p re ssu re o n t h e c o n tr a ct m ark e t inb oth dir e ctio n s. Th e ra te of gro w th of Sp an is h dem an d has slo w edco n sid era b ly , r e ta il v o lu m e g ro w th b etw een J u ly a n d N ove m ber 2 024 a ve ra ge d-1 .4 % y -o -y , t h is is in c o n tr a st t o + 4.3 % in t h e p re ce d in g f iv e m on th s. W it h t h ead dit io n al effe ct of re d u ce d eco n om ic activ it y du e to flo od in g th is hassig n if ic a n tly r e d u ce t h e d em an d s id e p re ssu re o n r a te s a n d f a cilit a te d a la rg e5 .1 % d ro p in b ack h au l s p ot r a te s p u sh in g th em b elo w c o n tr a ct r a te s fo r th efir s t t im e o n t h is r o u te . O n th e o th er h an d, S p an is h v e h ic le p ro d u ctio n a n d e xp orts s a w s ig n if ic a n tdeclin es, im pactin g r o ad f r e ig h t d em an d. A cco rd in g t o t h e S p an is h A sso cia tio nof A uto m ob ile an d Tru ck M an ufa ctu re rs , ve h ic le p ro d u ctio n in N ove m berd ro p ped b y 18.1 % y-o -y , an d exp orts fe ll b y 4.4 % in 2024 d u e to w eakE u ro p ean m ark e t d em an d. D esp it e t h e c a u tio u sly p osit iv e in dic a to rs fo r m ark e t c o n dit io n s o n t h is r o u te ,so m e ch alle n ge s re m ain as it is a dif fic u lt dem an d an d m an ufa ctu rin gen vir o n m en t a cro ss t h e c o n tin en t. T h e r ip ple e ffe ct c a n b e fe lt a cro ss r o u te s,th is is e vid en t in t h e y -o -y d eclin es o f s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct o n t h e h ead h au l, a n dth e y -o -y s p ot d eclin e o n t h e b ack h au l. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202425O utlo okA cco rd in g to th e Caix a B an k, th e bro ad er eco n om ic ou tlo ok fo r Sp ain isr e la tiv e ly op tim is tic . H ou se h old pu rc h asin g pow er is re co ve rin g ste ad ily ,th ere fo re d em an d is u nlik e ly to la g o n th is r o u te , b u oyin g r a te s u p. L o okin gah ead , s p ot r a te r is e s a re lik e ly t o r e m ain m arg in al, d esp it e t h e r is e in c o sts , a sd em an d r e m ain s m ute d a n d c a n n ot f a cilit a te a s ig n if ic a n t s p ot r a te r is e in t h esh ort t e rm . In t h e m ed iu m t o lo n g t e rm , c o n tr a ct r a te s w ill c o n tin ue t o r is e a sm an ufa ctu rin g re co ve rs in th e h ead h au l, an d th e exte n t o f th e ris e w illd ep en d o n a va rie ty o f fa cto rs th at w ill lik e ly d ep en d o n m an ufa ctu rin gdem an d r a th er t h an c o sts g o in g f o rw ard . M ean w hile , F re n ch E co n om ic a ctiv it yr e m ain s s u bdu ed a n d is u nlik e ly t o a d d o r r e d u ce a n y s ig n if ic a n t p re ssu re o nra te s. H ow eve r, a h ig h c o sts b ase a n d e ro d ed p ro fit m arg in s a re in cre asin g t h elik e lih ood o f s o m e p ric e r is e s. O n t h e b ack h au l, t h e s ig n if ic a n t y -o -y r is e in c o n tr a ct r a te s c a n b e a ttr ib u te d t ot h e ele va te d co st b ase ve rs u s th e la st ye ar o f o p era tin g a Fre n ch tr u ck .O pera tin g c o sts f o r F re n ch t r u ck s h ave r is e n a cro ss a ll c o m pon en ts , e xce p t f o rd ie se l c o sts , w hic h f e ll b y 1 .0 % q -o -q a n d 1 1.2 % y -o -y . D riv e r c o sts r e m ain t h ela rg e st c o st in cre ase , w hile m ain te n an ce , t o lls , a n d in su ra n ce c o sts h ave a ls ose en m od era te q u arte rly g ro w th . © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202426D uis b u rg – W ars a w R oad F re ig h t R ate sR ateO n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m W ars a w t o D uis b u rg , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 2 .3 %to € 1,6 46 ( € 1.5 2/k m ), q -o -q . S p ot r a te s s a w a s im ila r in cre ase o f 3 .3 % , r e ach in g€1,8 10 (€ 1.6 8/k m ). Y e ar o n y e ar, co n tr a ct ra te s in cre ase d 8 .4 % , w hile sp otra te s in cre ase d b y 9 .4 % . O n t h e b ack h au l r o u te f r o m D uis b u rg t o W ars a w , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 7 .3 %q -o -q t o € 1,2 35 (€ 1.1 4/k m ), w hile s p ot r a te s in cre ase d b y ju st 1 .0 % , r e m ain in gre la tiv e ly s ta b le a t € 1,4 47 (€ 1.3 4/k m ). C om pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar,s p ot r a te s r o se b y 1 0.1 % , a n d c o n tr a ct r a te s in cre ase d b y 7 .3 % . P ola n d - G erm an y Source: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024Mark et S to ryR is in g c o sts in G erm an y a n d P ola n d, e xce p t fo r d ie se l, h ave a d ded u pw ard sp re ssu re o n ro ad fr e ig h t d em an d a n d p ric in g. G erm an y’s s te ep M AU T (t o ll)i n cre ase d th e o p era tin g co sts o f ca rrie rs in G erm an y, ca u sin g a kn ock -o nin cre ase in r a te s o r d ete rrin g s o m e c a rrie rs f o rm o p era tin g o n G erm an r o u te sall t o ge th er, in t u rn r e d u cin g t h e a va ila b le c a p acit y a n d in cre asin g s u pply s id ep re ssu re o n r a te s.A s o f D ece m ber 2 023, th e to ll in cre ase d b y a ro u nd € 0.1 58/k m , a n d a C O 2su rc h arg e o f € 200 p er to n o f C O 2 w as a d ded fo r c o m merc ia l v e h ic le s. A s o fJu ly 2 024 , th e n ext sta ge o f th e ro ad to ll re fo rm ca m e in to fo rc e , a n d th eob lig a tio n t o p ay f o r t o ll r o ad s in G erm an y e xte n ded t o u se rs o f v e h ic le s w it h am axim um t o ta l w eig h t o f 3 .5 t o 7 .5 T o n nes.In fla tio n in P ola n d r e m ain s e le va te d , a ve ra gin g 4 .8 % in Q 4 2 024, u p f r o m 2 .8 %in Q 1 2 024, fo llo w in g in fla tio n o f 1 1.8 % in 2 023. R ece n t in cre ase s a re o n cea ga in ca u sin g p ric e p re ssu re s acro ss th e eco n om y. P olis h la b or co sts fo rtr a n sp ort e m plo ye es ro se b y 1 6.0 % y-o -y in Q 4 2 024, th e se co n d-h ig h estin cre ase in th e EU aft e r Rom an ia . A s a re su lt , th e co st base fo r polis ho p era tio n co n tin ues to gro w a n d a d d u pw ard p re ssu re to b oth sp ot a n dco n tr a ct m ark e ts .P asse n ge r c a r p ro d u ctio n in P o la n d in cre ase d 3 5.6 % , a cco rd in g to S ta tis tic sP ola n d, a ve ra gin g 1 4,0 00 u nit s p er m on th , v e rs u s la st q u arte r’s 1 0,0 00 u nit sp er m on th . H ow eve r, th is fig u re fe ll 45% y-o -y . new ord ers str u ggle d ,d ecre asin g to 9 5.1 0 p oin ts in N ove m ber 2 024, d ow n fr o m 9 7.4 0 p oin ts inO cto b er 2 024. G erm an d em an d r e m ain ed p artic u la rly w eak, d riv in g t h e f a ste std eclin e in P olis h e xp ort o rd ers in t h re e m on th s.27 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O n th e h ead h au l, th e g a p h as w id en ed b etw een sp ot a n d co n tr a ct ra te sslig h tly , w it h sp ot ra te s n ow 9 .9 % h ig h er th an co n tr a ct ra te s th is q u arte r,c o m pare d t o 8 .9 % in t h e p re vio u s q u arte r. In c o n tr a st, t h e g a p b etw een s p otan d c o n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed o n th e b ack h au l in Q 4. S p ot ra te s w ere 1 7.2 %ab ove c o n tr a ct r a te s in Q 4 2 024, d ow n f r o m 2 4.6 % in t h e p re vio u s q u arte r.28 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 D om estic d em an d re co ve re d s lig h tly . H ow eve r, th e d ow ntu rn in n ew o rd ersfa ile d t o o ffs e t f a llin g p ro d u ctio n o u tp u t, lim it in g r a te g ro w th f o r b oth t h e s p otan d c o n tr a ct r a te a n d t h e d em an d is la ggin g.O n t h e b ack h au l, t h e s tr o n ge st a re a o f g ro w th in G erm an m an ufa ctu rin g w asth e m an ufa ctu re o f tr a n sp ort e q u ip m en t, u p 7 .5 % q -o -q , u p 2 .0 % , h ow eve r,s till 3 .0 % b elo w p re -p an dem ic le ve ls . N ew o rd ers fo r m an ufa ctu rin g w ere u pqu arte r o n q u arte r, b y 3 .0 % , h ow eve r d ow n 0 .8 % y -o -y . G erm an co n su m er b eh avio r sh ow ed m ix e d tr e n ds to w ard s th e e n d o f th eye ar. A cco rd in g to d ata fr o m D esta tis , re ta il tr a d e e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le san d m oto rc y cle s g re w b y 8 .0 % q -o -q a n d 1 .6 % y -o -y . H ow eve r, t h e r e ta il s a le s o f fo od , b eve ra ge s, a n d to b acco d eclin ed b y 0 .6 % q u arte rly a n d 3 .0 % y -o -y ,w hile clo th in g sa le s ro se b y 6 .7 % q -o -q b u t fe ll b y 3 .9 % co m pare d to th epre vio u s ye ar. D esp it e th is , G fK re p orte d a slig h t re co ve ry in co n su m erse n tim en t in D ece m ber, w it h b oth in co m e e xp ecta tio n s a n d w illin gn ess t o b u yin cre asin g, w hile th e w illin gn ess to s a ve d ecre ase d . T h e c o n su m er c lim ate ise xp ecte d to im pro ve m od estly at th e sta rt of th e new ye ar, w it h th ew illin gn ess t o b u y s ta b ilis in g a t a lo w le ve l a n d g a in in g 0 .6 p oin ts t o r e ach - 5 .4 ,an im pro ve m en t o f m ore t h an t h re e p oin ts c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la sty e ar. A s a r e su lt , G erm an c o n su m er s p en din g is a d din g lit tle p re ssu re to th eupw ard s m ove m en t o f r a te s o n t h is la n e.A cco rd in g to Eu ro sta t d ata , co n su m er sp en din g in P ola n d sh ow ed m ix e dtr e n ds in t h e f o u rth q u arte r. C ar s a le s e xp erie n ce d a s tr o n g in cre ase , r is in g b y11.8 % co m pare d to th e p re vio u s q u arte r an d 1 2.7 % y-o -y . Sa le s o f fo od ,b eve ra ge s, an d to b acco gre w m od estly , up 0.9 % q-o -q an d 1.0 % y-o -y .H ou se h old g o od s s a w s ig n if ic a n t g ro w th , in cre asin g b y 7 .4 % q -o -q a n d 1 5.1 %y-o -y . H ow eve r, r e ta il tr a d e, e xclu din g m oto r v e h ic le s, d eclin ed b y 1 .9 % y -o -yd esp it e a 2 .4 % q u arte rly ris e . T h ese fig u re s s u gge st a c a u tio u sly im pro vin gdem an d e n vir o n m en t.29 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O utlo okO ve ra ll, ris in g co sts on th e W ars a w -D uis b u rg ro u te are exe rtin g upw ardp re ssu re o n ra te s a s c a rrie rs p ass th ese in cre ase s o n to c u sto m ers . T h is isl ik e ly to k e ep r a te s e le va te d in 2 025 a s p ro fit m arg in s n ow p ro vid e v e ry lit tler o om f o r f u rth er f a lls . G erm an y's s h arp M AU T t o ll in cre ase s, a lo n g w it h r is in gla b or c o sts in P ola n d, a re k e y c o n tr ib u to rs t o t h is t r e n d.30L ille – D uis b u rg R oad F re ig h t R ate s R ate sO n t h e h ead h au l r o u te fr o m D uis b u rg t o L ille , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 5 .3 % inQ 4 c o m pare d to th e p re vio u s q u arte r, re ach in g € 680 (€ 2.2 5/k m ). S p ot ra te sre m ain ed r e la tiv e ly s ta b le , in cre asin g b y ju st 0 .8 % t o € 694 (€ 2.3 0/k m ). Y e ar o nye ar, c o n tr a ct r a te s f e ll b y 8 .7 % , w hile s p ot r a te s d eclin ed b y 5 .2 % . On th e b ack h au l ro u te fr o m L ille to D uis b u rg , co n tr a ct ra te s fo r Q 4 2 024in cre ase d b y 5 .0 % q -o -q t o € 507 (€ 1.6 8/k m ). S p ot r a te s r o se b y 6 .8 % o ve r t h esa m e p erio d , re ach in g € 581 (€ 1 .9 2/k m ). C om pare d to th e sa m e q u arte r in2 023, s p ot r a te s in cre ase d b y 8 .0 % , w hile c o n tr a ct r a te s s a w a s m alle r r is e o f2.1 % . Fra n ce – G erm an ySource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202431M ark et S to ryA cco rd in g to D esta tis , n ew o rd ers in G erm an y d ro p ped b y 5 .4 % b etw eenO cto b er a n d N ove m ber, d riv e n b y a s h arp d eclin e in la rg e o rd ers e xce ed in g€50 m illio n . Y e ar o n y e ar, o rd ers f e ll b y 1 .7 % . T h e d em an d f o r G erm an g o od sd eclin ed b y o ve r 8% sin ce 202 0. R eta il sa le s als o co n tr a cte d b y 0.6 % inN ove m ber, in dic a tin g w eak c o n su m er s p en din g. A s n ew o rd er n um bers a relo w , p ro d u ctio n o u tp u t n um bers a re s e t t o c o n tin ue d eclin in g. T h ere fo re , t h e in du str y w ill c o n tin ue t o d em an d s m alle r v o lu m es o f r o ad f r e ig h t in Q 1 2 025,w hic h k e ep s p re ssu re f r o m t h e m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r lo w . T h is is e vid en t in t h ey-o -y r a te d ecre ase s o b se rv e d in t h e h ead h au l.O n th e b ack h au l, th e F re n ch m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r c o n tr a cte d in D ece m ber,w it h P M I d ro p p in g to 4 1.9 . A s a r e su lt o f a w eak d em an d e n vir o n m en t, it isc le ar th at co sts a re th e m ajo r d riv in g fa cto rs fo r p ric e in cre ase s b etw eenG erm an y a n d F ra n ce .Tru ck o p era tin g c o sts in G erm an y s a w b ro ad in cre ase s. T yre e xp en se s r o se b y2.8 % q -o -q a n d 2 .4 % y -o -y . M ain te n an ce a n d re p air co sts clim bed b y 1 .1 %co m pare d to th e pre vio u s qu arte r an d 5.4 % y-o -y . In su ra n ce co stse xp erie n ce d th e ste ep est su rg e , u p 4 .0 % fr o m th e p re vio u s q u arte r a n d asig n if ic a n t 3 3.7 % y -o -y . In a d dit io n , la b ou r c o sts fo r tr a n sp ort e m plo ye es inG erm an y r o se 5 .0 % in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t. A s p re vio u sly m en tio n ed , o p era tin g c o sts f o r F re n ch t r u ck s a re u p q -o -q in a llc o st c o m pon en ts . E xce p t f o r D ie se l c o sts , w hic h d ecre ase d y -o -y b y 1 1.2 % a n dq-o -q b y 1 ,0 % . D riv e r c o sts re m ain o n a n u pw ard tr a je cto ry , th e C N R L o n gH au l d riv e r in dex ris in g b y 5 .1 % y -o -y in Q 4 2 024 (+ 0.1 % q -o -q ), d ow n fr o m+7.9 % in th e p re vio u s q u arte r. Th ey re m ain th e b ig ge st in cre ase in co stc o m pon en t. M ain te n an ce co sts in cre ase d 3.0 % y-o -y , to lls an d axe l ta xe sin cre ase d 2.8 % an d ve h ic le in su ra n ce an d fin an ce co sts in cre ase d 3.2 % ,acco rd in g t o C N R. L a b ou r c o sts fo r t r a n sp ort e m plo ye es in F ra n ce g re w 4 .0 %in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g t o E u ro sta t.O n th e h ead h au l, th e g a p b etw een s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed th isq u arte r, w it h s p ot r a te s n ow ju st 2 .1 % a b ove c o n tr a ct r a te s, c o m pare d t o 6 .7 %la st q u arte r. O n th e b ack h au l, th e ga p b etw een sp ot an d co n tr a ct ra te sw id en ed , w it h s p ot r a te s n ow 1 4.6 % a b ove c o n tr a ct r a te s, c o m pare d t o 1 2.7 %la st q u arte r. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202432 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 O utlo okEco n om ic a ctiv it y re m ain s ra th er s ta gn an t o n b oth s id es o f th is la n e a n d isp ro vid in g lit tle u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s. A lt h ou gh t h e c u rre n t e n vir o n m en tfo r d em an d is w eak, h ig h c o sts a re c o n tin uin g t o p u sh r a te s u pw ard s, a n d a ssu ch , th ey w ill r e m ain a t th is s u sta in ed le ve l a s h ig h c o sts a re p asse d o n toc u sto m ers . C arrie rs n ow fa ce a n e le va te d co st b ase w it h lo w p ric e le ve lsr e su lt in g in t h in m arg in s. I n 2 025, s ig n if ic a n t p ric e d ro p s a re u nlik e ly ; h ow eve r,a n y g ro w th in d em an d is e xp ecte d t o d riv e p ric e in cre ase s a s c a rrie rs s e iz e ar a re o p portu nit y t o b oost p ro fit s .S in ce 1 Ja n uary 2 025, t h e im ple m en ta tio n o f t h e F re n ch L o w E m is sio n M ob ilit yZ o n es (Z FE s), u nder t h e C lim ate a n d R esilie n ce A ct, h as e n te re d a n ew p h ase .So m e cit ie s h ave tig h te n ed tr a ffic re str ic tio n s, an d th e sc h em e h as b eenexte n ded . N ow 4 2 c o n urb atio n s a re p ote n tia lly a ffe cte d , in clu din g L ille . F o r t h em om en t, o n ly H GVs r e gis te re d b efo re 1 O cto b er 2 001 a re b an ned in t h e L illec o n urb atio n . T w o co n urb atio n s th at re gu la rly e xce ed re gu la to ry a ir q u alit yt h re sh old s a re " e ffe ctiv e Z FE t e rrit o rie s”, P aris a n d L yo n . A gglo m era tio n s t h atco m ply w it h th e re gu la to ry a ir q u alit y th re sh old s, b u t w it h a c o n ce n tr a tio nth at re gu la rly exce ed s th e va lu e re co m men ded by th e W orld Healt hO rg a n iz a tio n , a re “v ig ila n ce te rrit o rie s”. T h e p re ssu re o n h au lie rs to e q u ipt h em se lv e s w it h le ss p ollu tin g fle ets w ill t h ere fo re in cre ase , w hic h m ay w eig ho n c a p acit y a n d c o sts . H ow eve r, u rb an a re as h ave d eve lo p ed a p ra gm atic a n dca u tio u s a p pro ach . Fo r e xa m ple , th e G re n ob le A lp es m etr o p olit a n a re a isp la n nin g to re vie w it s tim eta b le fo r C rit 'A ir 2 lig h t c o m merc ia l v e h ic le s a n dheavy g o od s v e h ic le s. T h e b an o n th ese v e h ic le s s h ou ld b e p ostp on ed fr o mJu ly 2 025 t o J u ly 2 028.Th e bala n ce s of op in io n asso cia te d w it h th e le ve l of ord er books areim pro vin g, a s t h ey a re u p – 1 8.4 in D ece m ber, f r o m - 2 1.1 0 p oin ts in N ove m beran d -2 5 .1 0 p oin ts in O cto b er o f 2 024. A s o u tp u t in cre ase s in th e sh ort tom ed iu m te rm , th is w ill h ave u pw ard s p re ssu re o n ra te s as th e d em an den vir o n m en t fo r th e b ack h au l re co ve rs d u e to e xp orts a n d a n in cre ase ini n pu t o rd erin g. In a d dit io n , a lt h ou gh F ra n ce 's G DP g re w b y 0 .4 % q -o -q in Q 3, th e B an k o fFra n ce a n tic ip ate s s lig h t p osit iv e e co n om ic g ro w th in Q 4. B y t h e e n d o f 2 024,th e Ban k pro je cts ove ra ll eco n om ic gro w th of 1.1 % , wit h hou se h oldc o n su m ptio n o f e n gin eere d g o od s e xp erie n cin g a m od est 0 .9 % q -o -q in cre ase .33A ustr ia - G erm an yW ie n – D uis b u rg R oad F re ig h t R ate s O n t h e h ead h au l r o u te f r o m D uis b u rg t o W ie n , c o n tr a ct r a te s r o se b y 8 .0 % q -o-q in Q 4 2 024, re ach in g € 1,3 86 (€ 1.4 5/k m ). M ean w hile , sp ot ra te s d ip pedslig h tly b y 1 .7 % , s e ttlin g a t € 1,5 57 (€ 1.6 3/k m ). Y e ar-o n -y e ar re ve als , c o n tr a ctra te s a re 9 .0 % lo w er th an th e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar, w hile s p ot ra te s h avefa lle n b y 4 .6 % . On th e b ack h au l ro u te fr o m W ie n to D uis b u rg , co n tr a ct ra te s in Q 4 2 024in cre ase d slig h tly by 2.8 % fr o m th e pre vio u s qu arte r, re ach in g €1,0 47(€ 1.1 0/k m ). In co n tr a st, sp ot ra te s declin ed by 2.2 % , dro p pin g to €1,2 95(€ 1.3 5/k m ). C om pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar, c o n tr a ct r a te s h ave r is e nb y 7 .8 % , w hile s p ot r a te s h ave e d ge d d ow n s lig h tly , d ecre asin g b y 1 .1 % .On th e h ead h au l, th e sig n if ic a n t ris e in co n tr a ct ra te s n arro w ed th e g a pb etw een s p ot a n d c o n tr a ct r a te s t o 1 2.3 % in Q 4, d ow n f r o m 2 3.4 % in Q 3, w it hs p ot r a te s r e m ain in g h ig h er. R ate sSource: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202434M ark et S to ryG erm an y's M an ufa ctu rin g P M I fo r N ew E xp ort O rd ers r o se s lig h tly to 4 3.7 inD ece m ber 2 024 b u t c o n tin ued t o in dic a te a s h arp c o n tr a ctio n , e xte n din g a 3 4-m on th d eclin e d u e to w eak d em an d, p artic u la rly fr o m E u ro p ean m ark e ts .W hile ch em ic a ls an d co n su m er n on -c y clic a ls sh ow ed so m e re silie n ce , th eau to m otiv e an d m ach in ery se cto rs re m ain ed w eak. Th is re d u ce d exp ortd em an d tr a n sla te s in to lo w er ro ad fr e ig h t vo lu m es, re d u cin g cu sto m erco m petit io n fo r ro ad fr e ig h t, fr e ein g u p m ore ca rrie r ca p acit y a n d in tu rnp u ttin g d ow nw ard p re ssu re o n f r e ig h t r a te s.In A ustr ia , m an u fa ctu rin g o u tp u t fe ll b y 3 .2 % q -o -q in Q 3 2 024, a cco rd in g toS ta tis tic s A ustr ia . H ow eve r, n ew o rd ers r o se b y 6 .9 % , r e co ve rin g fr o m a 0 .6 %co n tr a ctio n in th e pre vio u s qu arte r, wit h co n su m er du ra b le go od sexp erie n cin g a 1 2.5 % in cre ase . C on ve rs e ly , t h e m an ufa ctu re o f m oto r v e h ic le s,tr a ile rs , a n d s e m i- t r a ile rs fe ll s h arp ly b y 1 8.4 % . D esp it e th is im pro ve m en t inn ew o rd ers , t h e A ve ra ge P M I d eclin ed b y 0 .2 in dex p oin ts q -o -q a n d 1 .2 in dexp oin ts m on th o n m on th , s ig n alin g o n go in g c o n tr a ctio n in th e m an ufa ctu rin gse cto r. R ep orts f r o m S & P h ig h lig h te d w eake n in g d em an d, w it h f ir m s e xp ectin glo w er ou tp u t an d exp erie n cin g declin es in in pu t co sts an d fa cto ry ga tec h arg e s. H ig h co sts , partic u la rly w age s, an d co m petit iv e pre ssu re s haveco n str a in ed t h e a b ilit y t o r a is e f r e ig h t r a te s, s ig n alin g c o n tin ued c h alle n ge s f o rA ustr ia 's r o ad fr e ig h t m ark e t a m id st w eak m an ufa ctu rin g a ctiv it y a n d lim it e dp ric e g ro w th in s p ot r a te s.T ru ck o p era tin g c o sts in A ustr ia s h ow ed v a rie d in cre ase s a cro ss c o m pon en ts .T yre c o sts ro se b y 1 .6 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3 a n d 2 .5 % c o m pare d to th esa m e p erio d la st y e ar. M ain te n an ce a n d r e p air c o sts in cre ase d b y 0 .7 % q -o -qa n d 6 .3 % y -o -y . In su ra n ce c o sts s a w s m alle r c h an ge s, r is in g b y 0 .2 % q -o -q a n d4.2 % y -o -y .A s m en tio n ed p re vio u sly , G erm an tr u ck o p era tin g c o sts a re a ls o o n th e r is e ,in cre asin g a cro ss th e b oard . T yre c o sts r o se b y 2 .8 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3an d b y 2 .4 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la st y e ar. M ain te n an ce a n d r e p airc o sts in cre ase d b y 1 .1 % in Q 4 v e rs u s Q 3 a n d b y 5 .4 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m eperio d la st y e ar. In su ra n ce c o sts e xp erie n ce d t h e s h arp est r is e , in cre asin g b y4.0 % in Q 4 c o m pare d t o Q 3 a n d b y 3 3.7 % c o m pare d t o t h e s a m e p erio d la sty e ar. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202435O utlo okA n im pro ve m en t in n ew e xp ort o rd ers P M I in G erm an y, c o u ple d w it h t h e r is ein n ew o rd ers in A ustr ia , s ig n als t h at t h ere is p ote n tia l fo r a g ra d u al r e co ve ryin e xp ort d em an d th at c a n p u sh ra te s u p in th e s h ort to m ed iu m te rm a sin du str ia l o u tp u t in cre ase s to fu lf ill o rd ers . If th ese tr e n ds c o n tin ue, fu tu rer o ad fr e ig h t v o lu m es c o u ld g ra d u ally ris e , re ve rs in g s o m e o f th e d ow nw ardp re ssu re o n ra te s. A lt h ou gh o p era tin g c o sts a re n ot ris in g a s fa st a s in th epre vio u s q u arte rs , t h e e le va te d c o st b ase y -o -y c a n p u sh c o n tr a ct r a te s u p a sco n tr a cts c o m e t o r e n ew al. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202436 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 F ra n ce - U K Fra n ce - U K i m ports a n d e xp orts C on tr a ct a n d s p ot r o ad f r e ig h t r a te s b etw een F ra n ce a n d t h e U K c o n tin ued t od eclin e in Q 4 2 024. F ra n ce –U K c o n tr a ct ra te s fe ll b y 8 .2 % c o m pare d to th epre vio u s q u arte r, d ro p pin g f r o m € 1,8 21 (€ 3.0 5/k m ) t o € 1,6 71 (€ 2.8 1/k m ). Y e aro n y e ar, r a te s f e ll 7 .8 % f r o m € 1,8 12 in Q 4 2 023. M ean w hile , U K–F ra n ce c o n tr a ct ra te s sh ow ed a slig h t q u arte rly in cre ase o f0.6 % , r is in g f r o m € 1,0 85 ( € 1.6 8/k m ) t o € 1,0 91 ( € 1.6 9/k m ). H ow eve r, t h ese r a te sd eclin ed b y 3 .9 % f r o m € 1,1 35(€ 1.7 5/k m ) y -o -y . F ra n ce –U K sp ot ra te s fe ll 6.3 % q-o -q , fr o m €1,8 96 (€ 3.1 8/k m ) to €1,7 76(€ 2.9 9/k m ), a n d d ro p ped 3 .6 % y-o -y fr o m € 1,8 43(€ 3.1 /k m ). U K–F ra n ce sp otra te s s h ow ed m arg in al q u arte rly s ta gn atio n , d ecre asin g b y 0 .9 % fr o m € 1,0 80(€ 1.6 8/k m ) to € 1,0 71 (€ 1.6 5/k m ). H ow eve r, U K–F ra n ce sp ot ra te s fe ll m ores h arp ly y -o -y , d eclin in g b y 6 .9 % fr o m € 1,1 50 (€ 1.7 7/k m ). T h e la ck lu ste r b u syse aso n co n tr ib u te d to th e w eak ra te e n vir o n m en t o n b oth h ead h au l a n dback h au l r o u te s. R ate sSource: Upply37 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 M ark et S to ryA cco rd in g t o O NS's la te st U K t r a d e r e le ase , t o ta l g o od s e xp orts f e ll s lig h tly b y£0.1 b illio n (0 .4 % ), w it h a £ 0.7 b illio n (4 .6 % ) d eclin e in e xp orts to n on -E Uco u ntr ie s. H ow eve r, th is w as la rg e ly o ffs e t b y a £ 0.6 b illio n (4 .1 % ) in cre ase ine xp orts t o t h e E U .In O cto b er 2 024, im ports f r o m t h e E U e xce ed ed t h ose f r o m n on -E U c o u ntr ie sb y £ 4.4 b illio n , w hile e xp orts to th e E U w ere ju st £ 0.1 b illio n h ig h er th ane xp orts t o n on -E U c o u ntr ie s. F ra n ce r a n ke d a s t h e U K’s fo u rth -la rg e st t r a d in gpartn er in t h e fo u r q u arte rs e n din g Q 2 2 024, a cco u ntin g fo r 6 .0 % o f t o ta l U Ktr a d e.H ow eve r, U K e xp orts o f g o od s t o F ra n ce d ecre ase d b y 6 .6 % in t h e 1 2 m on th sto O cto b er 2024, w hile im ports of go od s fr o m Fra n ce declin ed by 8.8 %co m pare d to th e s a m e p erio d th e p re vio u s y e ar. F ra n ce re m ain s a k e y U Ktr a d in g p artn er, b u t tr a d e v o lu m es h ave fa lle n , a n d th at is re fle cte d in th edow nw ard s t r e n d in r a te s q -o -q .Ye ar o n y e ar, U K D ie se l c o sts h ave f a lle n b y 9 .8 % , a n d t h ere w as n o im med ia tec h an ge t o fu el d u ty a n nou nce d in t h e a u tu m n b u dge t. A cco rd in g t o t h e R oadH au la ge A sso cia tio n ’s A nnual C ost M ove m en t S u rv e y, t h ere w as a 3 .5 1% r is e ino ve ra ll o p era tin g c o sts , in clu din g fu el. In a d dit io n , F ra n ce d ie se l c o sts fe ll b y11.2 % y-o -y . Fu el re p re se n ts b etw een a q u arte r an d a th ir d o f a tr u ck 'so p era tin g c o sts , a n d f u els c o sts h ave b een o n a d ow nw ard s t r e n d in b oth t h ehead h au l a n d t h e b ack h au l o f t h is r o u te . F u el c o sts a re t y p ic a lly p asse d d ow nto c o n su m ers t h ro u gh r a te s. T h ere fo re , t h e r e d u ctio n in f u el p ric e s h elp s e asec o st p re ssu re s, e xe rtin g d ow nw ard p re ssu re o n o ve ra ll r a te s, a s o b se rv e d t h isq u arte r.A s o f A pril 2 025, U K o p era tin g c o sts a re s e t t o r is e f o llo w in g a n nou nce m en ts int h e a u tu m n b u dge t. T h e H GV L e vy w ill in cre ase t o £ 597, a n d t h e R oad F u nd t o£ 580, b rin gin g t h e t o ta l t o £ 1,1 77, a 3 .6 % in cre ase . H ow eve r, t h is r e p re se n ts as ig n if ic a n t 1 10% r is e c o m pare d to p re -A ugu st 2 023 r a te s, w hen th e le vy w asn ot a p plie d .38 © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 In a d dit io n , th e U K g o ve rn m en t h as d ela ye d th e fin al p h ase o f it s B ord erTa rg e t O pera tin g M od el (B TO M ) t o 3 1 Ja n uary 2 025, c it in g r e ad in ess c o n ce rn sw it h th e re q u ir e d te ch nolo gy. O rig in ally se t fo r 3 1 O cto b er 2 024, th e n ewsa fe ty a n d s e cu rit y d ecla ra tio n s f o r E U im ports h ave b een p ostp on ed , t h ou ghb u sin esse s a lr e ad y filin g d ecla ra tio n s fo r n on -E U im ports a re e n co u ra ge d tob egin e arly . A ddit io n ally , b ord er c h eck s o n s o m e m ed iu m -r is k E U fr u it a n dve ge ta b le im ports are defe rre d to 1 Ju ly 2025, w hile ch eck s on lo w -r is kp ro d u ce h ave b een c a n ce le d e n tir e ly to a vo id p ote n tia l s h orta ge s a n d p ric ein cre ase s.T h is d ela y w ill lik e ly in cre ase t h e a d m in is tr a tiv e b u rd en o n b u sin esse s, a s t h ead ded p ap erw ork a n d lo gis tic a l d if fic u lt ie s c o u ld r e d u ce c a p acit y o n t h is r o u te ,fu rth er driv in g up ra te s. Th ese fa cto rs are exp ecte d to ra is e co sts fo rb u sin esse s re ly in g o n E U –U K tr a d e ro u te s, in te n sif y in g th e d is ru ptio n s th ath ave f o llo w ed B re xit .O utlo okA lt h ou gh c o sts , s p ecif ic a lly fu el, w ere a m it ig a tin g fa cto r p re ve n tin g r a te r is e sth is q u arte r, t h e lo n ge r-t e rm o u tlo ok f o r c o sts r e m ain s d if fic u lt f o r o p era to rs . T h e c o n su m er d em an d o u tlo ok o n t h is r o u te is m ix e d . In t h e U K, r is in g c o stsa re la rg e ly a ffe ctin g th e d em an d la n dsc a p e. A cro ss se cto rs , co m pan ie s a rep re p arin g fo r p ric e in cre ase s, w hic h co u ld d riv e d ow n co n su m er sp en din g,p artic u la rly in r e ta il a n d h osp it a lit y . T h e v o lu m e o f g o od s t r a d ed m ay d ecre ased u e to th ese fa cto rs , w hic h c o u ld r e d u ce th e p re ssu re o n b oth c o n tr a ct a n dsp ot p ric e s f o r U K im ports a s f e w er g o od s e n te r t h e c o u ntr y in t h e s h ort r u n.H ow eve r, c o n su m er d em an d in F ra n ce is o n a s lig h tly e asie r r o u te t o r e co ve ry .In 2 025, F re n ch e xp orts a re s e t t o in cre ase 2 .7 % , a n d F re n ch im ports a re s e t t oin cre ase 1.8 % th ro u gh ou t th e ye ar, acco rd in g to th e la te st IM F tr a d ep re d ic tio n s.A p ote n tia l r e co ve ry in c o n su m er d em an d in F ra n ce c o u ld n udge r a te s b ack u pfo r F re n ch im ports in 2 025. C ost fa cto rs re la tin g to o p era tio n s a n d b ord erco n tr o ls c a n d riv e r a te s u p f o r U K im ports , a n d r e vit a lis e d c o n su m er d em an din F ra n ce c a n h ave a n u pw ard s p re ssu re o n r a te s f o r r a te s a s w ell.39I t a ly D om estic R ate sRate s D om estic co n tr a ct ra te s in It a ly ro se b y an ave ra ge o f 3.9 p oin ts in Q 4co m pare d t o Q 3.A s o f D ece m ber 2 024, d om estic c o n tr a ct r a te s r e ach ed 1 37.4 p oin ts , c lim bin g4.4 p oin ts s in ce N ove m ber. C on ve rs e ly , s p ot r a te s f e ll b y a lm ost 1 0.0 p oin ts t or e ach 1 49 .8 in D ece m ber.Y e ar o n y e ar, c o n tr a ct ra te s w ere u p b y 2 .5 p oin ts , w hile s p ot ra te s s a w am ore lim it e d r is e o f 0 .6 p oin ts .Source: Upply © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202440IIt a ly 's co n su m er sp en din g sh ow ed sig n s of ste ad y gro w th in la te 2024.A cco rd in g t o I S T A T, c o n su m ptio n in cre ase d 4 .4 % in Q 3 2 024. I n a d dit io n , in t h eth re e m on th s to N ove m ber 2 02 4, th e v a lu e o f r e ta il s a le s in cre ase d b y 0 .6 % ,while s a le s v o lu m e w as u p 0 .3 % , w hen c o m pare d t o t h e p re vio u s t h re e-m on thp erio d . H ow eve r, d esp it e th is su sta in ed co n su m er d em an d in H 2 2 0 24, o n a y -o -yb asis , t h e v a lu e o f r e ta il t r a d e r o se b y 1 .1 % , w hile v o lu m e s lig h tly d ro p ped b y0.2 % .W it h in th e non -f o od pro d u ct ca te go ry , y-o -y perfo rm an ce sh ow ed m ix e dre su lt s . T h e la rg e st g ro w th w as o b se rv e d f o r c o sm etic a n d t o ile t a rtic le s, w hic hin cre ase d b y 4 .1 % , w hile th e la rg e st fa lls w ere re co rd ed fo r c o m pu te rs a n dte le co m munic a tio n s eq u ip m en t, co n tr a ctin g by 2.8 % , an d sh oes, le ath ergo od s a n d tr a ve l it e m s d ecre asin g b y 2 .7 % . O ve ra ll, c o n su m er d em an d w asn ot e n ou gh t o s u sta in s p ot r a te s.O n t h e in du str ia l s id e, t h ere h as b een a s lo w dow n. T h e I t a lia n g o ve rn m en t h asco m mit te d € 1.6 b illio n t o s u pport t h e a u to m otiv e s u pply c h ain in 2 024 b u t w illn ot o ffe r c a r p u rc h ase s u bsid ie s in 2 025. M ean w hile , a u to m otiv e o u tp u t inI t a ly is e xp ecte d to h ave fa lle n b elo w 5 00,0 00 v e h ic le s in 2 024, a s ig n if ic a n tdro p fr o m 751,0 00 in 2023. Ste lla n tis an nou nce d th at it is exp an din g it sm an ufa ctu rin g in It a ly , w it h in cre ase d p ro d u ctio n e xp ecte d to s ta rt in 2 026,sp ecif ic a lly ta rg e tin g h yb rid a n d co m pact ve h ic le p ro d u ctio n , d esp it e w eakd em an d fo r ele ctr ic ve h ic le s an d in cre ase d co m petit io n fr o m Chin esem an ufa ctu re rs .In lin e w it h th is , It a lia n m an ufa ctu re rs re p orte d a declin e in op era tin gco n dit io n s, w it h fu rth er r e d u ctio n s in o u tp u t a n d n ew o rd ers a s 2 024 c lo se d .Th e s lo w dow n in p ro d u ctio n a n d d em an d c a n p u t d ow nw ard s p re ssu re o nra te s, as le ss m an ufa ctu rin g o u tp u t w ill tr a n sla te in to fe w er go od s b ein gtr a n sp orte d .Th e s u sta in ed d eclin e in n ew o rd ers a ls o le d t o f a ste r in ve n to ry d ep le tio n , o nth e o th er h an d, th is c a n b oost ra te s u p a s in ve n to ry re sto ck in g ta ke s p la cea ft e r t h e b u sy s e aso n .M ark et S to ry © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 202441O utlo ok Vo lu m e d ata in th e It a lia n m ark e t p ain ts a m ix e d p ic tu re , w it h a ste ad yin cre ase in c o n su m er s p en din g a t t h e e n d o f 2 024. P ro d u ctio n r e m ain s w eakb u t g o ve rn m en t in ve stm en t c o u ld p re ve n t v o lu m e f a lls in 2 025 . T h e c o st b asere m ain s e le va te d b u t th ere a re lit tle s ig n s o f g ro w in g c o st p re ssu re . In th eab se n ce o f u nfo re se en s h ock s, s te ad y g ro w th in d om estic It a lia n r o ad fr e ig h tra te s is e xp ecte d t o c o n tin ue. © Feb. 2025 | Ti & Upply & IRU | The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark – Q4 2024 Lo okin g f o rw ard , t h e It a lia n m an ufa ctu rin g s e cto r m ig h t f a ce o th er c h alle n ge s.N orth ern It a ly is h om e to fa cto rie s th at s u pply th e c o m pon en ts to G erm ana u to m an ufa ctu re rs , a n d a s th e G erm an A uto s e cto r c o ols , it c o u ld g re atlyr e d u ce d em an d fo r th ese It a lia n m an ufa ctu re rs , th ere fo re r e d u cin g v o lu m esexp orte d a n d p u sh r a te s d ow n.Tru ck o p era tin g c o sts in It a ly s a w m od era te in cre ase s a cro ss c o m pon en ts int h e la te st q u arte r. T yre c o sts r o se b y 0 .2 % in Q 4 c o m pare d to Q 3 a n d 2 .1 %co m pare d to th e sa m e perio d la st ye ar. M ain te n an ce an d re p air co stsin cre ase d b y 0 .6 % q -o -q a n d 3 .0 % y -o -y . In su ra n ce c o sts s h ow ed th e la rg e stris e , in cre asin g b y 1 .2 % q -o -q a n d 7 .1 % y -o -y . T h e in cre ase s in c o sts a re in lin ew it h t h e s lig h t u pw ard s t r a je cto ry in c o n tr a ct r a te s s in ce J u ly o f t h is y e ar.Meth od olo gyTh e r a te s a re t h e r e su lt o f U pply ’s o w n e co n om etr ic a n d s ta tis tic a l m od ellin g,w hic h is b ase d o n t h e a n aly sis o f m ore t h an 7 50 m illio n p ric e s. U pply p ro vid es T ru ck L o ad (L T L & F T L) w eekly ra te s e stim atio n s b ase d o nob se rv e d t r a n sa ctio n s f o r e ach m ajo r E u ro p ean t r a d e la n es, a sso cia te d w it h ac o n fid en ce in dex. T h ese r a te s a re c o m pu te d f r o m U pply ’s k e y p artn ers a n d u se rs d ata . To c o m ple te t h e a n aly sis p re se n te d h ere , T i s e le cte d a r e p re se n ta tiv e s a m pleo f t h e la rg e st E u ro p ean r o ad f r e ig h t c o rrid ors b y v o lu m e. Ti t h en u se d t h e m ed ia n r a te s p ro vid ed b y U pply o n e ach c o rrid or, a ve ra gin gw eekly r a te s o ve r e ach q u arte r. T i’s t e am o f s e n io r a n aly sts p ro vid e a d dit io n alin sig h t in to t h e d riv e rs a n d t r e n ds b eh in d p ric e m ove m en ts w it h s u pport f r o mU pply . N ote t h at d ata is s u bje ct t o r e -s ta te m en ts a n d t h at n ew la n e s a m ple s c a n b ech ose n f r o m o n e q u arte r t o t h e n ext.42© A ll r ig h ts r e se rv e d . N o p art o f t h is p u blic a tio n m ay b e r e p ro d u ce d in a n y m ate ria l f o rm in clu din g p h oto co p yin g o r s to rin g itb y e le ctr o n ic m ean s w it h ou t t h e p erm is sio n o f t h e c o p yrig h t o w ners , T ra n sp ort I n te llig e n ce L im it e d / U pply / I R U . T h is r e p ort isb ase d u pon fa ctu al in fo rm atio n o b ta in ed fr o m a n um ber o f p u blic s o u rc e s. W hils t e ve ry e ffo rt is m ad e to e n su re th at th ein fo rm atio n is a ccu ra te , T ra n sp ort In te llig e n ce L im it e d a cce p ts n o r e sp on sib ilit y fo r a n y lo ss o r d am age c a u se d b y r e lia n ceu pon t h e in fo rm atio n in t h is r e p ort. T h is is n ot a c o m ple te a n aly sis o f e ve ry m ate ria l f a ct r e ga rd in g t h is c o m pan y. T h e o p in io n sexp re sse d h ere r e fle ct t h e ju dgm en t o f o u r a n aly sts a t t h is d ate a n d a re s u bje ct t o c h an ge .IR U , t h e w orld r o ad t r a n sp ort o rg a n is a tio n , h as 7 5 y e ars o f o n -t h e-gro u nd e xp erie n ce w it h a n etw ork o f 1 75 m em bers fr o m a ro u ndth e w orld . W e re p re se n t th e e n tir e in du str y – b u s, c o ach , tr u cka n d ta xi, a n d str iv e fo r th e su sta in ab le m ob ilit y o f p eo p le a n dgo od s a cro ss t h e p la n et. A s t h e v o ic e o f m ore t h an 3 .5 m illio n c o m pan ie s o p era tin g m ob ilit y a n d lo gis tic s s e rv ic e s in o ve r 1 00co u ntr ie s, I R U f o ste rs im pactfu l s o lu tio n s t o h elp t h e w orld m ove b ette r.W e b rin g a u niq u e p ers p ectiv e , b rid gin g t h e p u blic a n d p riv a te s e cto rs t o s u pport t r a d e, e co n om icg ro w th , jo b s, s a fe ty , t h e e n vir o n m en t a n d c o m munit ie s. IR U p ro vid es c o n cre te s e rv ic e s t o t r a n sp ort a n d lo gis tic s c o m pan ie s, r a n gin g f r o m r e p re se n ta tio n a tth e E u ro p ean a n d in te rn atio n al le ve l, t r a d e a n d t r a n sit t o ols , d riv e r s k ills a sse ssm en ts ( in clu din g e co -d riv in g), c o m pre h en siv e r e se arc h a n d in sig h ts w it h t h em atic w ork sh op s a n d r o u ndta b le s o nd eca rb on is a tio n , d riv e r s h orta ge s a n d d ig it a lis a tio n . Fo r m ore in fo r m atio n , p le ase c o n ta ct in fo rm atio n @ ir u .o rg w ww.i r u .o rg4 3U pply is t h e d ig it a l p la tfo rm f o r f r e ig h t t r a n sp ort p ro fe ssio n als . U pplyd esig n s a n d d eve lo p s c u ttin g-e d ge a n d in nova tiv e s o lu tio n s to h elps h ip p ers , ca rrie rs an d fo rw ard ers exp lo it th e fu ll pote n tia l ofd ig it is a tio n f o r t h eir b u sin ess.C om bin in g t r a n sp ort e xp ertis e a n d D ata S cie n ce , s in ce 2 018 U pply h as d eve lo p ed it s le ad in g s o lu tio n ,Sm art, f o r b en ch m ark in g, t r a ck in g a n d a n aly sin g g lo b al f r e ig h t r a te s. W it h S m art, s u pply c h ain p la ye rsc a n m ake f u lly e n lig h te n ed d ecis io n s a n d o p tim is e t h eir t r a n sp ort in ve stm en ts .T h ro u gh it s C on nect d ig it a l p la tfo rm , U pply d ir e ctly c o n nects s h ip pers w it h r o ad h au lie rs a n d f r e ig h tfo rw ard ers . A s a n o p era tio n al t o ol, C on nect s im plif ie s t r a n sp ort o p era tio n s b y a u to m atin g t h eirp ro ce sse s.T o d eve lo p t h ese u niq u e t e ch nolo gic a l s o lu tio n s, U pply e m plo ys d ata s c ie n tis ts , lo gis tic s p ro fe ssio n alsa n d d ig it a l e xp erts . T h e c o m pan y is b ase d in P aris a n d c o u nts 6 0 e m plo ye es.F o r f u rth er in fo rm atio n , p le ase c o n ta ct c u sto m er.s e rv ic e @ upply .c o m . u pply .c o mTi is o n e o f th e w orld ’s le ad in g p ro vid ers o f exp ert re se arc h an dan aly sis ded ic a te d to th e glo b al lo gis tic s in du str y . Utilis in g th eexp ertis e o f p ro fe ssio n als w it h m an y y e ars o f e xp erie n ce in th e m ail,e xp re ss a n d lo gis tic s in du str ie s, T ra n sp ort In te llig e n ce h as d eve lo p eda r a n ge o f m ark e t le ad in g w eb -b ase d p ro d u cts , r e p orts , p ro file s a n dse rv ic e s use d by m an y of th e w orld ’s le ad in g lo gis tic s su pplie rs ,c o n su lt a n cie s, b an ks a n d u se rs o f lo gis tic s.F o r f u rth er in fo r m atio n o r t o r e q u est a d em o o f G SC i - p le ase c o n ta ct M ic h ae l C lo ve r: + 44 ( 0 )1 666 51990 7 o r e m a il m clo ve r@ ti- in sig h t.c o m . ti- in sig h t.c o m [15] => 23A [individuell6] => 23A [16] => [individuell7] => [17] => [individuell8] => [18] => [individuell9] => [19] => [individuell10] => [multisort] => SP 23A/2025 ))
SP23A/2025